The Singapore Grand Prix: Post-Qualifying Tips

“It was a strange feeling when you see the others making their final attempt and there’s nothing you can do. " ...Sebastian Vettel

Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Singapore Grand Prix and now that we know the starting grid, it's time to make another set of predictions.

There weren't a lot of bets which stood out as instantly appealing, but I've picked out a few, so here are my post-qualifying predictions for the Singapore Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.75 (Paddy Power)
Alonso has a decent record here, winning in 2008* and 2010 and finishing on the podium at all but one of the five previous Singapore Grand Prix.  He also came from 9th and 5th on the grid to finish 2nd at each of the previous two Grand Prix of 2013, so starting from 7th doesn't necessarily rule him out of another podium.  It's trickier to overtake at Singapore than at Spa and Monza obviously, but strategy can come into play, and the safety car has been deployed at least once at every Singapore Grand Prix, so pitstop timing could be key. 

* Admittedly thanks to a little help from 'Crashgate'.

The Hungarian Grand Prix: Hungaroring Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Hungarian Grand Prix

For previous Grand Prix I've given myself 100 points and then made a selection of pre and post qualifying tips split between shorter and longer priced bets.

However, starting from the Hungarian Grand Prix I'm going to carry my profit/loss forward in each category for every Grand Prix to make it easier to track how each category of bets performs.  This should make it easier to decide whether it's better to place your bets before or after qualifying and also make it easier to compare the relative risks of sticking with the favourites versus going for a few long shots.

If I'd followed this format since the Spanish Grand Prix (when I first started splitting my tips into shorter priced and longer priced bets), then my Post-Qualifying Shorter Priced Tips would currently be on a total of 204 points, i.e. a cumulative profit of 104 points.  My Post-Qualifying Longer Priced Tips and Pre-Qualifying Shorter Priced tips on the other hand would both be completely wiped out, suggesting a punt on relatively low-risk bets after qualifying is maybe the safest strategy to follow.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Hungarian Grand Prix and I'll see how I get on...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.0 (SkyBet)
Red Bull have grabbed the headlines with a one two in both P1 and P2, and Vettel has reportedly also had the fastest long run pace, but at such short odds he doesn't hold much appeal.  There hasn't been that much in it at the front with the Lotus and Ferrari drivers in the mix behind Red Bull, and in P2 Fernando was less than two tenths of a second behind Vettel.  Alonso also tends to make up places during the race, so if he gets a decent qualifying position then he looks to be a decent podium bet.

The German Grand Prix: Nurburgring Post-Qualifying Tips

"It's a little bit of an understatement to say that we have mixed emotions after qualifying." ...Ross Brawn

Once again it was a battle between Mercedes and Red Bull for pole, but the higher temperatures seemed to suit Lotus and Ferrari who weren't too far off the pace and overall things looks well balanced for an exciting race.

Fernando Alonso commented, "It is about the pace tomorrow - not the tyres or the strategy," but if we get a few cars closely matched for pace then strategy could still be the deciding factor.  I personally think Ferrari's strategy of qualifying on the medium tyres could prove to be a shrewd move, but it remains to be seen just how things will play out.

Here are my post-qualifying tips for the German Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
20 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.5 (BetFred)
Ferrari took a bit of a gamble in qualifying by running medium tyres in Q3 and as a result they qualified 7th and 8th.  However, grid position isn't as crucial in modern formula 1 as it was in years gone by and you don't win any points on a Saturday, so it may ultimately prove to be a wise decision by Ferrari to focus on the race.  Alonso goes into this race with three podiums from the last four Grand Prix and on each of those occasions he started 5th, 6th and 9th and has proven to be a driver who consistently makes up places during the races.

The British Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As usual I've analysed the statistics after the Canadian Grand Prix to produce the latest 'Betting Profit' charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.  As we have a three week gap between Montreal and Silverstone, I'll also be analysing a few other betting markets over the next few days such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

Once again I've produced two form charts; the first based on the entire 2013 season and the second weighted in favour of recent races.

For the benefit of anyone new to F1 Tips blog, the first chart shows the usual 'Betting Profit' returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each Grand Prix so far this season...

Canadian Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the top drivers during the Canadian Grand Prix.

As I mentioned in my previous post, the bet in play odds during the Canadian Grand Prix weren't particularly surprising given that Sebastian Vettel always looked in control, but here's the bet in play chart anyway just in case anyone's interested:

Canadian Grand Prix - The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Before each Grand Prix I make a set of pre and post qualifying tips and then compare which set of tips perform best.  For recent races, I've also analysed the performance of the drivers during 2013 to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.

You can see the detailed results in my previous posts, but to summarise, based on the statistics from the first six Grand Prix of the season, as we head to Canada the best bets so far have been...

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver - Kimi Raikkonen (50% profit / £9 return from £6 staked)
Podium Finish - Romain Grosjean (100% profit / £12 return from £6 staked)
Top Six Finish - Lewis Hamilton (25.3% profit / £7.52 return from £6 staked)
Top Ten Finish - Paul Di Resta (41% profit / £8.46 return from £6 staked)

N.B. The above figures are based on the return you would have received if you placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix of the season based on the odds when the market first opened, i.e. before practise and qualifying.

Monaco Grand Prix - The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Before each Grand Prix I make a set of predictions before and after qualifying and then compare which set of tips perform best.  For the last two races, I've also analysed the performance of the drivers during 2013 to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.

You can check out more detailed results in some of my posts over the last week, but to summarise, based on the statistics from the first five Grand Prix of the season, the best bets so far have been...

Spanish Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the top drivers during the Spanish Grand Prix.

Usually when I have a bet on formula 1, I generally prefer to wait until after qualifying as by this stage of the weekend the form of the various teams is starting to emerge and it's therefore possible to make a more educated guess as to how things will turn out.  It's quite rare therefore that I'll have a bet before qualifying and even rarer again that I'll ever bother with 'bet in play'.

However, just for a change, during the Spanish Grand Prix I monitored the 'bet in play' odds every few laps to see how the bookies resasessed their opinion of the potential winner as the Grand Prix progressed.  This is a graph of the odds:

Spanish Grand Prix: Barcelona Round-Up

"You feel the support from everyone and it helped." ...Fernando Alonso.

During the opening ten laps or so, the in-play betting had Vettel priced as the slight favourite over Alonso for victory at the Spanish Grand Prix.  However, once the strategies began to emerge it soon became clear that Alonso had the edge, and in fact in the end it proved to a reasonably comfortable victory for Fernando, with Vettel eventually slipping back to 4th place, and Kimi Raikkonen proving to be Alonso's closest challenger.

Before the race I split my tips into two categories, 'Playing It Safe/Shorter Priced Bets' and 'Taking A Risk/Longer Priced Bets', and on the basis of Spain the results would suggest that it's wiser to stay away from the long-shots and stick to drivers from the group of favourites.  Five of my six 'Playing It Safe' tips were winning bets, recording an overall return of 263 points from a 100 point initial outlay.

Here's the detailed report on how my tips got on...

Post-Qualifying Tips:

Playing It Safe/Shorter Priced Bets:

Race Winner:
20 points on Fernando Alonso at 5.0 - WIN 100 points
The Circuit de Catalunya had never previously hosted a Grand Prix where the winner had started from fifth on the grid, but modern formula 1 with its DRS, KERS and 'racey' tyres allowed Fernando Alonso's brilliance to earn the victory that the home fans were hoping for.

Podium:
10 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 1.57 - WIN 16 points
Kimi continued his impressive consistent run of form to record his fourth podium of the season.

Australian Grand Prix: Melbourne Round-Up

A great weekend for Kimi Raikkonen but mixed results for my Australian Grand Prix formula 1 tips...

Last season my post-qualifying tips generally out-performed my pre-qualifying tips, but at the Australian Grand Prix it was a reversal of form as my pre-qualifying tips had the upper hand and just sneaked a slight profit...

Pre-Qualifying Tips:

To Win Outright:
20 points on Jenson Button at 6.0 - LOSS
From the first practise session it was already looking obvious that McLaren were way off the pace, so Jenson never had a chance of continuing his impressive run of victories at Albert Park.

Podium Finish:
30 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.0 - WIN 60 points
Last year Fernando was by far the most attractive bet in the Podium Finish market and he started 2013 in similar form with an impressive second place.

The Australian Grand Prix: Melbourne Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Australian Grand Prix

The wait is over and the new season is finally here!

For each Grand Prix of the season I'm going to place a few hypothetical bets pre and post qualifying using the odds available from SkyBet.com and see which set of tips perform best.  In 2012 my post-qualifying tips generally outperformed my pre-qualifying tips so I'll see if that's how things turn out once again.

It's always a bit of a step into the unknown at the start of a new season when making predictions, but I'll see how I go...

To Win Outright:
20 points on Jenson Button at 6.0
Jenson Button wasn't overly pleased with the way things went for McLaren at the recent Barcelona test, but he clearly likes the Albert Park track and has won three of the last four Australian Grand Prix.  At odds of 6.0 he therefore looks worth a small bet for another Australian victory.

Driver Odds For The 2013 Formula 1 Season

An analysis of the most popular formula 1 betting market for 2013.

A couple of months ago I took a look at the odds for the 2013 formula 1 drivers' championship, so with the new season now only a week away I thought it would be interesting to look at how those odds have changed since the bookies first started taking bets on the forthcoming season.

In my original post I grouped the drivers into three categories; the favourites, the outside contenders and the longshots, so once again I'll look at the odds for these three groups.

The favourites:

	Early Odds	Current Odds
Sebastian Vettel	2.25	2.5
Fernando Alonso	3.25	4.0

It's no surprise that the bookies make Vettel and Alonso the favourites, but it's interesting that the odds for both Vettel and Alonso have drifted out slightly since the market opened.  Given the fact that the relative performances of the teams at the start of the season always contains an element of the unknown, my own personal view is that anyone wanting to place a bet on Vettel or Alonso for the championship would maybe be wise to wait until after the Australia Grand Prix, as whatever the result in Melbourne their odds are unlikely to shorten dramatically.

Which Formula 1 Driver Is The Most Popular In His Home Country?

How popular are formula 1 drivers in their own countries based on number of Google searches?

In my previous post, The 2012 Formula 1 Google Champion, I compiled a list of the formula 1 drivers who took part in the 2012 formula 1 championship ranked in order of who gets the most searches on Google.  You can check out the results here:

The 2012 Formula 1 Google Champion!

To quickly recap, the figures were based on the average number of worldwide searches per month on Google for each driver.  To investigate things further I decided to also look up the number of Google searches that each driver gets in their home country and see what effect that had on the rankings.  However, countries like Finland obviously have a smaller population than the likes of Germany, Spain and the UK, so the figures wouldn’t really mean much if I simply left things like that.

To ensure a level playing field, I therefore then adjusted the figures to produce the number of annual Google searches per 1,000 of the population in each driver’s home country.

Here are the results:

The 2012 Formula 1 Google Champion!

Which formula 1 driver is the most searched for on Google...

During the winter break I always get formula 1 withdrawal symptoms, so to help me pass the time until the new season begins, I decided to do some research and investigate which of the current drivers are the most popular with fans.  There isn’t really a scientific way of doing this without asking every formula 1 fan in the world, but I thought the next best thing would be to check the number of searches each driver gets on Google every month and then list the drivers in order of Google popularity.

For those who don’t know already, as well as their famous search engine, Google also have a cool feature called Google Keywords Tool which allows you to look up how many searches a particular search term gets on average per month.

Anyway, at the end of 2012 I did a check for each of the 25 drivers who took part in the 2012 formula 1 driver’s championship and then ranked them in order to see how closely the Google table compares with the actual final standings of the 2012 driver’s championship.

So in keeping with tradition, here is the list of formula 1 drivers ranked by monthly Google searches in reverse order…

Early Odds For The 2013 Formula 1 Season

An analysis of the formula 1 odds for 2013.

It's only a few weeks since the 2012 formula 1 season ended and I'm already getting withdrawal symptoms.  So to help me cope with the close season I thought I would have a look at the early odds for the 2013 driver's formula 1 championship.

Looking at the odds available from SkyBet, you can pretty much divide the field into three groups of drivers; the favourites, the outside contenders and the longshots.

The favourites:
Perhaps not surprisingly, SkyBet's odds seem to suggest that we're in for another two way battle between Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso, with the pair of them the clear favourites in the current betting:

Sebastian Vettel - 2.25
Fernando Alonso - 3.25