Formula 1 Betting By Numbers
Over
the last week or so I've analysed recent results to see which drivers
have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of
the most popular formula 1 betting markets. The form guide
charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss
for every driver.However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the best bets in various categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, below...
Most Profitable Bets:
Winning Driver: Nico Rosberg (£6.17 profit rating)
Podium Finish: Romain Grosjean (£6.50 profit rating)
Top Six Finish: Jean-Eric Vergne (£5.00 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish: Nico Hulkenberg (£2.75 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier: Lewis Hamilton (£4.28 profit rating)
Winning Team: Mercedes (£7.43 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row: Lewis Hamilton (£2.70 profit rating)
Fastest Lap: Mark Webber (£14.83 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader: Lewis Hamilton (£2.17 profit rating)
First To Retire: Adrian Sutil (£17.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire: Force India (£7.50 profit rating)
Safety Car: Yes (£0.46 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements: None (£1.91 profit rating)
Winning Margin: Under 6 Seconds (£0.01 profit rating)
N.B. The profit rating is weighted in favour of recent races to reflect the fact that recent Grand Prix generally have more relevance to forthcoming results. To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver/result at each of the previous six Grand Prix (based on the odds when the market first opened) and then applied the following multipliers; Spain 16.7%, Monaco 33.3%, Canada 50%, Britain 66.7%, Germany 83.3% and Hungary 100%.
If you're looking to minimise your risk, rather than gambling on a large return, then here are the bets which have come up most often in the last six Grand Prix:
Safest Bets:
Winning Driver: Nico Rosberg (2 wins from 6 Grand Prix)
Podium Finish: Sebastian Vettel (4 podiums from 6 GP)
Top Six Finish: Lewis Hamilton (5 top six finishes from 6 GP)
Top Ten Finish: Mark Webber (6 top ten finishes from 6 GP)
Fastest Qualifier: Lewis Hamilton (3 poles from 6 GP)
Winning Team: Red Bull (3 wins from 6 GP)
Qualify On Front Row: Lewis Hamilton (6 front rows from 6 GP)
Fastest Lap: Mark Webber (3 fastest laps from 6 GP)
Lap 1 Leader: Lewis Hamilton (2 from 6 GP)
First To Retire: Adrian Sutil (1 from 6 GP)
First Team To Retire: Caterham (2 from 6 GP)
Safety Car: Yes (3 from 6 GP)
Lap 1 Retirements: None (6 from 6 GP)
Winning Margin: Under 6 Seconds (3 from 6 GP)
N.B. When two or more drivers/results have achieved an equal success rate, I have listed the driver/result which would have returned the biggest profit. Bets which have paid out in each of the last six Grand prix are underlined.
Three of the safest bets since the Spanish Grand Prix have been Mark Webber to finish in the points, Lewis Hamilton to qualify on the front row and Lap 1 Retirements - None, all of which have been a winning bet on six out of six occasions. However, bear in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future success!
If you'd like to check out more detailed form guide charts then you can find them at the following links:
The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish
The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish
The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish
The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets
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