Saturday, 17 August 2013

The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

In the run-up to Spa, I've analysed the statistics to produce the latest form guide charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the 'Winning Driver' betting market and over the next few days I'll also be analysing a few other betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

As usual I've produced two form charts; the first weighted in favour of recent races (to take into account the fact that recent form obviously has more relevance to forthcoming results) and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver (Current Form):

Winning DriverProfit*Winning Bet
Nico Rosberg6.172
Lewis Hamilton4.001
Sebastian Vettel0.782
Fernando Alonso-2.881
Rest Of The Field-3.500

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Spain 16.7%, Monaco 33.3%, Canada 50%, Britain 66.7%, Germany 83.3% and Hungary 100%.

As you can see, on current form it's the Mercedes drivers who have been the strongest bets to go for, although despite the generally short odds available for Sebastian Vettel, he's also been a reasonable bet.

The second chart shows the 'Betting Profit' returns for the entire season...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver (Entire Season):

Winning DriverProfit*Winning Bet
Nico Rosberg8.002
Sebastian Vettel2.934
Kimi Raikkonen-1.001
Fernando Alonso-1.752
Lewis Hamilton-2.501
Rest Of The Field-9.000

* As a reminder, the 'Profit' column shows the amount of profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix this season.  
Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.

The results for the entire season perhaps won't have quite as much relevance to forthcoming results, but I like my statistics so I've included them anyway.

Over the next few days I'll be analysing a few other betting markets and next up is the Podium Finish market.

Other recents posts:
Hungarian Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds
Hungarian Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds

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