Sunday, 18 August 2013

The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Yesterday I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets so far this season in the Winning Driver market and today it's the turn of the Podium Finish betting market.

Once again I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent Grand Prix (to take into account the fact that recent form obviously has more relevance to forthcoming results) and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Current Form):

Podium FinishProfit*Winning Bet
Romain Grosjean6.501
Kimi Raikkonen1.703
Sebastian Vettel0.314
Lewis Hamilton-0.152
Nico Rosberg-0.432
Mark Webber-0.752
Fernando Alonso-1.503
Felipe Massa-2.671
Rest Of The Field-3.500

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Spain 16.7%, Monaco 33.3%, Canada 50%, Britain 66.7%, Germany 83.3% and Hungary 100%.

As you can see the Podium Finish market has been a tricky one to make a profit from in recent races.  Despite registering the biggest profit, Romain Grosjean has only been on the podium once at the last six Grand Prix and therefore on current form Kimi Raikkonen or Sebastian Vettel are better options if you're looking for a safer bet, with seven podiums between them at the last six Grand Prix.

Free delivery on all luggage at Antler

The second chart shows the 'Betting Profit' returns for the entire season...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Entire Season):

Podium FinishProfit*Winning Bet
Romain Grosjean14.002
Kimi Raikkonen3.926
Lewis Hamilton0.454
Sebastian Vettel0.377
Mark Webber-0.753
Fernando Alonso-1.805
Nico Rosberg-4.302
Felipe Massa-5.001
Rest Of The Field-10.000

* As a reminder, the 'Profit' column shows the amount of profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix this season.  Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.

The chart for the entire season actually isn't that different from the current form chart.  If you'd placed a £1 bet on Romain Grosjean for a podium at every Grand Prix then you'd currently be well in profit, but judging by Grosjean's odds at the Hungaroring the bookies now seem to be pricing Grosjean at significantly shorter odds, so the window of opportunity for decent profits may now have passed.

Over the next few days I'll be looking at the form guide for Top Six Finish, Top Ten Finish and Miscellaneous Bets.

Follow F1Tips on twitter:

Other recent posts:
The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
Hungarian Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds
Hungarian Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds

Legal note: This post contains affiliate banner links.

No comments:

Post a Comment