Saturday, 24 August 2013

The Belgian Grand Prix: Spa Post-Qualifying Tips

"In these conditions, it's more of a lottery and the driver can make more of a difference. " ...Lewis Hamilton

Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Belgian Grand Prix and now that the starting grid has been decided I'm going to follow things up with another set of predictions.

I've pretty much banked on a wet race with several of these tips, but I reckon the wisest strategy is probably to check the weather predictions closer to the start of the race before placing your formula 1 bets.

Anyway, here are my post-qualifying tips for the Belgian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 3.0 (Ladbrokes, Coral, BetFred)
Alonso was unlucky with the timing of the rain in Q3 and as a result ended up 9th on the grid, but he had the pace in Q1 and Q2, and he seems confident for his chances in the race.  Track position isn't as vital at Spa as at certain other tracks, especially if we get a wet race, so although Fernando's podium consistency hasn't been quite as strong this year as it was in 2012, odds of 3.0 are enough to tempt me into a small bet on Alonso to make up places during the race and finish on the podium.

Lap 1 Retirements: 
10 points on Lap 1 Retirements - Nil at 1.6 (Bwin)
This has been the most consistent bet of the season so usually I would be tempted to favour this bet quite strongly.  However, the possibility of a wet race brings with it the increased chance of incidents on the first lap and therefore I'm going to cautiously limit my bet to 10 points.

Safety Car:
10 points on Safety Car - Yes at 1.57 (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power)
The probability of a wet race brings with it an increased possibility of accidents and a safety car, so this is another one where I'm factoring in the weather.

Taking A Risk/Longer Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Jenson Button at 12.0 (Bet365)
A podium finish is quite an optimistic prediction for McLaren this season, and if it's dry tomorrow then I can pretty much write this bet off.  However, Jenson reckoned his sixth place on the grid was down to genuine performance rather than luck, so McLaren look to have made improvements during the F1 summer break.  Jenson won at Spa last year and was on the podium in 2011, so although this is a longshot, at odds of 12.0 I reckon it's worth a small speculative bet on Jenson to record McLarens first podium of the season.

Fastest Lap:

10 points on Mark Webber at 8.0 (Bet Victor)

Fastest Lap is always a tricky market to predict and a wet race could make things even more unpredictable, so there's an element of risk to this bet.  However, Mark Webber has managed the fastest lap at three of the last four Grand Prix, and the Red Bulls have looked strong in pretty much all conditions so far this weekend, so Mark Webber looks to be the stand-out bet in this market.

Not To Be Classified:

10 points on Felipe Massa at 4.5 (Ladbrokes)
Any bets in the 'Not To Be Classified' market are always speculative, but with a wet race predicted and Felipe Massa prone to the occasional mistake in recent races, I've been tempted by a small bet on Massa to register a DNF.

As usual I'll report back after the Grand Prix on how events unfolded.

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If you want to check out my pre-qualifying tips you can find them at the following link:
The Belgian Grand Prix: Spa Pre-Qualifying Tips

Or if you'd prefer to check out the form guide, then you can find the top formula 1 bets by the form guide at the following link:
Belgian Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

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Footnote:  All odds were correct at time of publication but are subject to change.

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