Friday, 23 August 2013

The Belgian Grand Prix: Spa Pre-Qualifying Tips

"We have got closer to the favourites, but I'm not sure which weather forecast I would prefer!" ...Fernando Alonso

Last time out at Hungary my pre-qualifying tips managed to sneak a narrow profit which means my current points totals stand at 106 points for my Shorter Priced Bets and 103 points for my riskier Longer Priced Bets.

Anyone betting on the Belgian Grand Prix should bear in mind that the weather forecast is predicting the probability of a wet race, which inevitably brings with it an element of unpredictability.  It may therefore be wise to stay away from short favourites, or at least wait until closer to the start of the Grand Prix before analysing the odds and placing your bets.

As usual though, I'll make my predictions and see how I go...

Shorter Priced Bets:

10 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 2.15 (Sporting Bet)
Kimi was on the podium at Germany and Hungary, so he seems to be in solid form at the moment (which should help his agent with his contract negotiations for next season!).  Kimi was also on the podium at Spa last year and won on his previous visit here before that (in 2009), so Spa seems to be a track which suits him.

To Reach Qualifying Session Three:
10 points on Daniel Ricciardo at 2.0 (Bet Victor)
Daniel Ricciardo has the added pressure this weekend of wanting to impress Christian Horner in order to help his hopes of getting the second Red Bull seat for 2014, and in the practise sessions so far he hasn't exactly set the track alight.  However, he's on a strong qualifying run at the moment, reaching Q3 at each of the three previous Grand Prix weekends, so odds of evens seem like decent value for Ricciardo to make it four on the trot.

Winning Margin:
10 points on Under 6 Seconds at 2.1 (SkyBet)
On recent results, this has been an unpredictable market and with the exception of a few circuits there's not really an exact science to it.  Jenson Button won last year's Belgian Grand Prix by 13.6 seconds but prior to that the three previous Belgian Grand Prix saw a winning margin of under 6 seconds.  A potentially wet race could perhaps increase the possibiity of a safety car which would obviously bunch the field up, so at odds of 2.1 I'm tempted by a small bet on this year's Belgian Grand Prix to be won by a margin of Under 6 Seconds.

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Taking A Risk/Longer Priced Bets:

Pole Position:
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 2.75 (SkyBet, BetFred, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes)

Mercedes have made a habit of starting weekends off the pace and then hooking it all together on a Saturday, and when the issue was raised with Lewis Hamilton he provided this insight, "I know why that is but I'm not going to tell you!"  Lewis goes into this weekend on the back of three straight pole positions, so although Red Bull looked to have the edge in P2, and Mercedes were some way back, you nevertheless can't rule out Lewis once again putting things together and producing another perfect lap when it counts.

Top Ten Finish:
10 points on Nico Hulkenberg at 2.75 (Bet365, Bet Victor)
A wet race can sometimes shake the order up making it somewhat risky to go for shorter priced favourites and therefore with that in mind I've looked for a slightly longer priced driver in this market.  Nico Hulkenberg has been consistent without being spectacular in recent races, with 10th, 10th and 11th place finishes at the three previous Grand Prix, so he's my choice for a small punt on a points scoring finish.

Qualifying Match Bets:
10 point accumulator on:  (SkyBet)
Lewis Hamilton V Nico Rosberg - Lewis Hamilton at 1.57
Sebastian Vettel V Mark Webber - Sebastian Vettel at 1.25
Kimi Raikkonen V Romain Grosjean - Kimi Raikkonen at 1.73
Jules Bianchi V Max Chilton - Jules Bianchi at 1.17

. . . . . . . .

As I mentioned at the start of this post, we could be in for a wet race on Sunday which makes things exciting but also tricky to predict.  If you'd like to check out the form guide therefore before deciding on your bets, then you can find the top formula 1 bets by the form guide at the following link:
Belgian Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Finally, you can find a more detailed analysis of the current form in various formula 1 betting markets at the following links:
The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish
The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish
The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish
The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

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Footnote:  All odds were correct at time of publication but are subject to change.

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