Wednesday, 21 August 2013

The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Today I'm going to round-off my review of the form guide by taking a look at a selection of miscellaneous formula 1 betting markets such as fastest lap, fastest qualifier, etc.

The following form guide charts charts are based on the last six races and as usual I've weighted things in favour of recent results by applying the following multipliers for each Grand Prix: Spain 16.7%, Monaco 33.3%, Canada 50%, Britain 66.7%, Germany 83.3% and Hungary 100%.

Fastest Lap:

First up, here's the form guide for the fastest lap:

Fastest LapProfit*Winning Bet
Mark Webber 14.833
Esteban Gutierrez13.331
Fernando Alonso4.831
Sebastian Vettel-2.171
Rest Of The Field-3.500

Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

Mark Webber has been the man in form when it comes to fastest laps with three fastest laps at the last four Grand Prix, so we'll see if he can continue his excellent run at Spa.

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Fastest Qualifier:

Next up is the form guide for 'Pole Position' or 'Fastest Q3 Qualifying Time' as some bookies refer to it:

Fastest QualifierProfitWinning Bet
Lewis Hamilton4.283
Nico Rosberg-0.672
Sebastian Vettel-1.751
Rest Of The Field-3.500

The dominance of Lewis Hamilton in recent qualifying sessions means that he's the only driver to produce a positive profit rating at the last six Grand Prix.  However, Lewis hasn't had a pole at Spa since 2008 so this is still a market to approach with caution.

Winning Margin:

Most bookies also offer a market on the Winning Margin of each Grand Prix and at SkyBet they go with 6 seconds as the dividing line:

Winning MarginProfitWinning Bet
Under 6 seconds 0.013
6 seconds or more-0.503

There hasn't really been a pattern in recent Grand Prix so this is another tricky market to predict.  The last six Grand Prix have seen an average winning margin of 6.68 seconds with the closest finish coming at Silverstione when Vettel finished ahead of Raikkonen by 0.70 seconds and the biggest winning margin coming at Canada when Vettel beat Alonso home by 14.4 seconds.


Safety Car:

Here's the current statistics for Safety Car betting:

Safety CarProfitWinning Bet

Another unpredictable market so perhaps the best strategy might be to back whichever bet the bookies price as the outside bet.

Winning Team:

Finally, here's the current form guide for Winning Team:

Winning TeamProfitWinning Bet
Red Bull-0.042
Rest Of The Field-3.500

Mercedes have clearly been the best value bet in this market, although their odds may be considerably shorter at Spa after they demonstrated at Hungary that perhaps they've finally managed to get on top of their tyre issues.

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Other recent posts:
The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish
The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish
Hungarian Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds
Betting With Points To Win Free Bets And Cash Prizes

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