Saturday, 6 July 2013

The German Grand Prix: Nurburgring Post-Qualifying Tips

"It's a little bit of an understatement to say that we have mixed emotions after qualifying." ...Ross Brawn

Once again it was a battle between Mercedes and Red Bull for pole, but the higher temperatures seemed to suit Lotus and Ferrari who weren't too far off the pace and overall things looks well balanced for an exciting race.

Fernando Alonso commented, "It is about the pace tomorrow - not the tyres or the strategy," but if we get a few cars closely matched for pace then strategy could still be the deciding factor.  I personally think Ferrari's strategy of qualifying on the medium tyres could prove to be a shrewd move, but it remains to be seen just how things will play out.

Here are my post-qualifying tips for the German Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
20 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.5 (BetFred)
Ferrari took a bit of a gamble in qualifying by running medium tyres in Q3 and as a result they qualified 7th and 8th.  However, grid position isn't as crucial in modern formula 1 as it was in years gone by and you don't win any points on a Saturday, so it may ultimately prove to be a wise decision by Ferrari to focus on the race.  Alonso goes into this race with three podiums from the last four Grand Prix and on each of those occasions he started 5th, 6th and 9th and has proven to be a driver who consistently makes up places during the races.

Top Six Finish:
20 points on Nico Rosberg at 1.8 (Paddy Power)
If not for an error of judgment from Mercedes in Q2, Nico Rosberg reckoned he could have been on the front row.  Silverstone suggested that Mercedes have sorted out their race pace so despite starting from 11th on the grid I still fancy Rosberg to make the top six.

Points Finish:
20 points on Paul di Resta at 2.0 (BetFred, Coral)
Paul had a disappointing qualifying session and didn't have the pace that he showed in qualifying at Silverstone, but his recent race form has been excellent, finishing in the points at each of the last six Grand Prix.  He started 17th, 17th and 21st at Monaco, Canada and Silverstone and still made the top ten, so starting from twelth he looks a reasonable bet to extend his run of points scoring finishes.

Total Classified Finishers:
10 points on Over 18.5 Finishers at 1.8 (Ladbrokes)
Despite the tyre problems at Silverstone, the general reliability of formula 1 cars is pretty solid at the moment, and the last five Grand Prix have seen relatively few retirements with Bahrain, Spain, Canada and Britain all producing 19 or more classified finishers.

Lap 1 Retirements:
30 points on Lap 1 Retirements - None at 1.53 (Paddy Power)
This has been one of the most reliable bets of the year and if you'd had a £1 bet on 'Lap 1 Retirements - None' at every Grand Prix during 2013 you'd currently be £4.98 in profit.

Ferrari Store

Taking A Risk/Longer Priced Bets:

There weren't too many longer priced bets which caught my eye, but here are the few I've decided to go for...

Race Winner: 
20 points eachway* (40 points in total) on Mark Webber at 9.0 (Bet Victor)
I went for an eachway bet on Mark before qualifying and after he qualified only a tenth of a second behing team-mate Vettel I'm going to stick with my decision.  As previously mentioned, Webber was on the podium at formula 1's last visit to the Nurburgring in 2011, and claimed a victory the time before that in 2009, so although it looks to be very competitive at the front of the field with more drivers in the mix than usual, Mark looks the best value of the longer priced drivers.

* Bet Victor pay 1/4 the odds on the first 3 places for an eachway bet.

Double Points Finish:
30 points on Force India at 4.5 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
This has been a winning bet at the last three Grand Prix so although Force India haven't looked overly impressive so far this weekend, the longer than usual odds make me think it may be worth a small speculative bet on both Force India drivers to sneak into the lower end of the points scoring positions.

Match Bets:
30 point accumulator on:  (William Hill)
Paul di Resta V Adrian Sutil - Paul di Resta at 1.62
Jenson Button V Sergio Perez - Jenson Button at 1.57
Kimi Raikkonen V Romain Grosjean - Kimi Raikkonen at 1.33

As usual I'll report back after the Grand Prix on how things turned out.

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You can find the best bets so far this season by the form guide at the following link:
German Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

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Footnote:  All odds were correct at time of publication but are subject to change.

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