Thursday, 4 July 2013

The German Grand Prix: Nurburgring Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The German Grand Prix

Yesterday I listed some of the most profitable formula 1 bets of the 2013 season, and also the safest bets, in various formula 1 betting markets.  Today I'm going to see how I get on against the form guide by making a set of pre-qualifying tips and then follow this up on Saturday evening with a set of post-qualifying tips.

As usual I'm going to split my tips into a selection of shorter priced bets and also a selection of longer priced more risky bets.

Since I started splitting my tips I've had mixed fortunes, with decent returns at Spain and Monaco but poor results at Canada and Silverstone.  If you prefer to pay more attention to the form guide than my own predictions (which may be wise on current form!) then you can find the formula 1 betting form guide at the following link:
German Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Anyway, here are my predictions for the German Grand Prix... 

Shorter Priced Bets:

Qualify On Front Row:
20 points on Lewis Hamilton at 1.44 (SkyBet)
Given that Lewis has qualified on the front row for the last four Grand Prix now, you can understand why the bookies price him so short.  Mercedes team-mate Nico Rosberg is priced similarly short (at odds of 1.53) and with four front row finishes from the last five qualifying sessions he's also worth considering, but Lewis is the driver I'm going for.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
20 points on 0.15 Seconds Or More at 1.67 (SkyBet)
It's fairly competitive at the front of the field between Mercedes and Red Bull right now, but the average qualifying winning margin in 2013 has been 0.39 and only two qualifying sessions this season have seen a front row separated by less than 0.15 seconds.

Podium Finish:
20 points on Nico Rosberg at 2.5 (Bwin, 188 Bet, Bet 365)
In 2012 Fernando Alonso was Mr Consistency when it came to podium finishes and he's also been a solid bet this year with three podiums from the last four Grand Prix.  However, Ferrari's qualifying pace hasn't been a match for Mercedes and Red Bull, so if it goes to form and Alonso qualifies further down the grid then his odds may drift out slightly.  It may therefore be worth waiting until after qualifying before considering a bet on Alonso for a podium.

Looking elsewhere, Mercedes seem to have got on top of their tyre management issues and their race pace has been far more consistent since their disappointing performance at Spain.  Nico Rosberg has two victories from the last three Grand Prix, so he looks generously priced at 2.5 for a podium at the German Grand Prix.

Grid Position Of Lap 1 Leader:
20 points on 'Driver Who Started On Pole' at 1.35 (Bwin)
At every Grand Prix during 2013, the driver on pole has crossed the line leading the race at the end of the first lap, so despite the narrow odds on offer I'm still going to go for a punt on that trend to continue.

Double Points Finish:
20 points on Ferrari at 1.55 (Bwin)

Taking A Risk/Longer Priced Bets:

Race Winner:
10 points eachway* (20 points in total) on Mark Webber at 9.5 (Bet Victor)
I went for an eachway bet on Mark at the British Grand Prix and once again I reckon there's decent value in an eachway bet on Mark Webber for the victory at the German Grand Prix.   He was on the podium at formula 1's last visit to the Nurburgring in 2011, and claimed a victory the time before that in 2009, on both occasions qualifying on pole and finishing the race one place ahead of his team-mate Sebastian Vettel.

* Bet Victor pay 1/4 the odds on the first 3 places for an eachway bet.

Top Six Finish: 
30 points on Paul di Resta at 3.25 (General)
Due to qualifying issues, Paul has started the last three Grand Prix from 17th, 17th and 21st and yet still finished in the points on each occasion.  He recorded the fifth fastest time during Q3 at Silverstone, but was penalised for his car being under weight, so if he gets a trouble free qualifying session at the Nurburgring then he could be in line for a decent haul of points.

Qualify On Front Row:
20 points on Mark Webber at 5.0 (SkyBet)
On current form Lewis Hamilton looks an excellent bet for a front row qualifying position, but if you're looking for a longer priced bet then Mark Webber is also worth a look, based on his previous form at the Nurburgring.  He qualified on pole here in 2011 and 2009, so although Mercedes currently have a slight advantage when it comes to one lap pace, I'm also going to go for a small bet on Mark Webber at odds of 5.0 to take advantage if either Lewis or Nico don't quite put together a perfect qualifying lap.

Race Match Bets:
30 point accumulator on:  (William Hill)
Nico Rosberg V Fernando Alonso - Nico Rosberg at 2.25
Jules Bianchi V Max Chilton - Jules Bianchi at 1.25
Charles Pic V Giedo Van Der Garde - Charles Pic at 1.25

As usual I'll be making another set of tips after qualifying and then comparing which set of tips performs best.  And if anyone else has any predictions then feel free to leave a comment.

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You can find the best bets so far this season by the form guide at the following link:
German Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

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Footnote:  All odds were correct at time of publication but are subject to change.

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