Saturday, 7 September 2013

The Italian Grand Prix: Monza Post-Qualifying Tips

"They didn't put out the last radio message, when I said thank you to Felipe and thank you to the team." ...Fernando Alonso

Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix and now that the starting grid has been decided I'm going to follow things up with another set of predictions.

The latest weather forecast is predicting, "An increasing chance of heavy showers this weekend in Monza for the Formula 1 racing."  However, I got caught out at Spa by a forecast of showers which never came, so once again the wisest strategy is probably to wait until closer to the start of the Grand Prix before finalising your bets.

Anyway, here are my post-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Double Points Finish:
20 points on Red Bull at 1.4 (Paddy Power)
This is a fairly short priced bet to be tipping, but given that Red Bull have recorded a double points finish at nine out of eleven Grand Prix so far in 2013, the odds of 1.4 on offer from Paddy power just seem rather generous.

Top Six Finish:
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 1.7 (William Hill)
Lewis had a nightmare in qualifying but you would expect a number of drivers ahead of Hamilton on the grid to fall back a few places during the race.  Monza is a circuit where you can make up places so I therefore don't think it's beyond Lewis to put his disappointing qualifying behind him and sneak into the top six.

Lap 1 Retirements: 
20 points on Lap 1 Retirements - Nil at 1.5 (SkyBet, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Bwin)
A predictable tip by now, but it keeps coming up so I'll keep tipping it.

Taking A Risk/Longer Priced Bets:

Race Winner:
10 points eachway* on Fernando Alonso at 6.5 (SkyBet)
It was Fernando's frustrated radio messages which got most of the headlines during qualifying, but afterwards when he'd had a chance to calm down he described it as, "an extremely, extremely good qualifying for us and a great team effort."  Alonso starts from fifth, generally makes up places during the race, and has been on the podium at his three previous visits to Monza (winning in 2010).  Although Vettel is understandably the odds on favourite, I therefore think Alonso looks a decent price for an eachway bet at odds of 6.5.

* SkyBet pay 1/5 the odds for the first 3 places.

First Team To Retire:
10 points on Caterham at 8.0 (Ladbrokes, Bet Victor)
Chares Pic's retirement on lap 8 of the Belgian Grand Prix meant that Caterham have now been the first car to retire at three of the last six Grand Prix, so at odds of 8.0 I'm going to go for a punt on them to extend that unwanted record at the Italian Grand Prix.

Match Bets:

10 point accumulator on:  (SkyBet)
Jenson Button V Sergio Perez - Sergio Perez at 2.25
Lewis Hamilton V Kimi Raikkonen - Lewis Hamilton at 1.73

If anyone else has got any predictions of their own then feel free to leave a comment.

As usual I'll report back after the Grand Prix on how things turned out.

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If you want to check out my pre-qualifying tips you can find them at the following link:
The Italian Grand Prix: Monza Pre-Qualifying Tips

Or you can find the latest formula 1 form guide at the following link:
Italian Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

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Footnote:  All odds were correct at time of publication but are subject to change.

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