Monday, 2 September 2013

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

So far in the run-up to Monza, I've analysed the top formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver and Podum Finish betting markets and today I look at the Top Six betting market.

Once again I've compiled two form guide charts; the first weighted in favour of recent results and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Six Finish (Current Form):

Top 6 Finish Profit* Winning Bet
Jenson Button 2.83 3
Jean Eric-Vergne 2.17 1
Lewis Hamilton 1.01 6
Fernando Alonso 0.67 5
Mark Webber 0.52 5
Sebastian Vettel 0.10 5
Romain Grosjean -0.07 2
Nico Rosberg -0.45 4
Kimi Raikkonen -0.61 3
Felipe Massa -2.64 1
Adrian Sutil -3.04 1
Rest Of The Field -3.50 0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%, Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.

As you can see on recent form Jenson Button has been a solid bet with three top six finishes at the last six Grand Prix.  However, the slight improvements which McLaren seem to have made in recent races may mean that Jenson's odds for a top six finish at Monza come down accordingly.

Ferrari Store Spring/Summer 2013

The second chart shows the figures for the entire season...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Six Finish (Entire Season):

Top 6 Finish Profit* Winning Bet
Jean-Eric Vergne 6.00 1
Lewis Hamilton 2.96 10
Sebastian Vettel 1.35 10
Mark Webber 1.20 8
Jenson Button 1.18 4
Romain Grosjean -0.71 4
Nico Rosberg -0.72 6
Fernando Alonso -0.96 8
Kimi Raikkonen -1.36 7
Felipe Massa -2.01 5
Sergio Perez -6.00 1
Paul Di Resta -7.25 1
Adrian Sutil -8.25 1
Rest Of The Field-11.000

Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

Obviously the results for the entire season won't have quite as much relevance as results from recent races, but the above chart is perhaps worth consulting if you're looking for a driver to consider for a longer priced speculative bet.

That's the Top Six Finish betting market covered and tomorrow I'll be featuring the form guide for Top Ten Finish betting.

Follow F1Tips on twitter:

Other recent posts:
The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish
Belgian Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds


No comments:

Post a Comment