Sunday, 1 September 2013

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Yesterday I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets so far this season in the Winning Driver market and today I move onto the Podium Finish betting market.

Once again I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent Grand Prix and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Current Form):

Podium FinishProfit*Winning Bet
Romain Grosjean4.501
Lewis Hamilton0.803
Sebastian Vettel0.785
Kimi Raikkonen0.502
Fernando Alonso-0.243
Nico Rosberg-1.382
Mark Webber-1.712
Rest Of The Field-3.500

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%, Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.

Bear in mind as well that I've calculated the above chart based on the odds a few days before each Grand Prix.  Odds can fluctuate during practise and qualifying, so if you're shrewd with your timing then the potential is there to make bigger profts than those shown above.

For example Fernando Alonso was priced at evens before qualifying for Spa, but after he qualified 9th his odds then drifted out to 3.0.  Fernando's ninth spot was down to changeable qualifying conditions rather than a lack of pace, and Spa is an excellent track for overtaking, so that was one example when better odds were available in the Podium Finish market if you managed to time your bet right.

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The second chart shows the 'Betting Profit' returns for the entire season...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Entire Season):

Podium FinishProfit*Winning Bet
Romain Grosjean13.002
Kimi Raikkonen2.926
Lewis Hamilton1.145
Sebastian Vettel0.818
Fernando Alonso-0.806
Mark Webber-1.753
Nico Rosberg-5.302
Felipe Massa-6.001
Rest Of The Field-11.000

* As a reminder, the 'Profit' column shows the amount of profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix this season.  Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.

Romain Grosjean remains the top podium bet so far this season and over the last season and a half he's shown that although he doesn't have the consistency of the likes of Raikkonen and Vettel, he nevertheless always seems to manage to achieve the occasional podium when you least expect it.  It's therefore worth keeping an eye on Grosjean's odds if you're after a speculative podium bet.

Still to come over the next few days is my analysis of the formula 1 form guide for Top Six Finish, Top Ten Finish and Miscellaneous Bets.

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Other recent posts:
The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
Belgian Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds
Betting With Points To Win Free Bets And Cash Prizes

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