Wednesday, 29 May 2013

Monaco Grand Prix: Tips Round-Up

"This is my home.  I've grown up here all my life and it's really special." ...Nico Rosberg

In the first few laps after the pitstops, Vettel's race engineer reported to Vettel on the radio that his tyres from the first stint had been marginal.  Rosberg's engineer on the other hand revealed that the tyres from his first stint had held up well (still at 60%), and while you never know how much of radio transmissions are intended for the driver and how much are for the benefit of rival teams, from that point on it looked like it was Rosberg's race.

At the Spanish Grand Prix my post-qualifying tips did pretty well with my 'Playing It Safe' tips returning 263 points from 100 points, and although my return wasn't quite as impressive this week, things nevertheless still went reasonably well with a return of 126 points.

However, my 'Longer Priced' pre-qualifying tips were the bets that really performed strongly this time out with an excellent return of 324 points from 100 points, which I have to admit was a lot better than I was expecting!  I suppose it shows that if you're going to go for a risky longer priced bet then before qualifying is the time to do it (especially at Monaco), as once the grid is decided then the bookies are obviously going to shorten the odds of any driver with a realistic chance of doing well, and longer priced bets worth considering are going to be harder to find.

This is the detailed report on how my tips got on starting with my 'Longer Priced' pre-qualifying tips...

Pre-Qualifying Tips:

Taking A Risk/Longer Priced Bets:

Race Winner:
10 points eachway (20 points in total) on Mark Webber at 13.0 (SkyBet, Ladbrokes) - WIN 34 points
Mark never looked in contention for the victory but the timing of the safety car meant he was able to get ahead of Lewis Hamilton at the pitstops and ensure that the eachway part of this bet was a winning bet.

Fastest Qualifier:
20 points on Nico Rosberg at 4.5 (Ladbrokes) - WIN 90 points
During qualifying, Nico Rosberg's bet in play odds for pole position fluctuated between 1.91 and 3.25, so therefore earlier in the week when he was available at a generous 4.5 was definitely the time to back him for pole.

Not To Be Classified:
20 points on Romain Grosjean at 4.5 (SkyBet) - WIN 90 points
The 'Not To Be Classified' market is worth a look at circuits like Monaco and after Romain Grosjean's accident prone season last year he seemed to be as good a bet as any.  So it proved to be as Grosjean had four accidents in total this weekend and retired from the Monaco Grand Prix on lap 63 when he smashed into the back of Daniel Ricciardo coming out of the tunnel.

To Finish In The Points (Top Ten Finish): 
20 points on Daniel Ricciardo at 2.75 (PaddyPower, Bet 365) - LOSS

Double Podium Finish:
20 points on Red Bull at 5.5 (PaddyPower) - WIN 110 points
For whatever reason Red Bull traditionally go well at Monaco and their run of form continued with a double podium ensuring that both their drivers finished in the top four positions at Monaco for the 4th consecutive year.

Making a very satisfying overall return of 324 points and therefore an overall profit of 224 points.


Playing It Safe/Shorter Priced Bets:

Race Winner:
20 points on Sebastian Vettel at 3.75 (SkyBet, Bet365) - LOSS
Vettel's odds drifted out slightly after qualifying suggesting the bookies thought he'd have a tough time winning the race starting from 3rd on the grid.

Top Six Finish:
20 points on Felipe Massa at 1.72 (Bet365) - LOSS
Felipe Massa has been an excellent top six bet this season, but his crash in P3 meant he was unable to make qualifying and from that point on this bet always looked pretty much doomed.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
20 points on Qualifying Winning Margin - 0.15 Seconds Or More at 2.00 (SkyBet) - LOSS
For the first time this season we had a really close qualifying session, with just over a tenth of a second separating the front three on the grid.

Qualifying Winning Team:
20 points on Mercedes at 1.91 (PaddyPower) - WIN 38 points
Nico Rosberg made it his third consecutive pole position and the fourth pole in a row for Mercedes who are currently the team to beat when it comes to one lap pace.

Highest Scoring Team:
20 points on Red Bull at 2.75 (Ladbrokes) - LOSS

Mercedes just pipped Red Bull this weekend, with 37 points to Red Bull's 33.

Making a disappointing overall return of 38 points and therefore an overall loss of 62 points.


As already mentioned my shorter priced post-qualifying tips weren't able to match the returns made at the Spanish Grand Prix, but they still made a slight profit...

Post-Qualifying Tips:

Playing It Safe/Shorter Priced Bets:

Winning Driver:
20 points on Sebastian Vettel at 5.0 (Bet365 enhanced odds) - LOSS
Nico Rosberg's victory means that each of the last five Monaco Grand Prix have been won by the driver who started on pole.

Podium Finish:
20 points on Mark Webber at 3.0 (Ladbrokes) - WIN 60 points
Mark Webber generally goes well at Monaco and his good form continued with another solid podium.

Winning Margin:
20 points on Under 6.5 Seconds at 1.67 (Ladbrokes) - WIN 33 points
As expected Monaco produced a closer finish than at most races this season with Nico Rosberg claiming the victory by 3.8 seconds from Sebastian Vettel in second place.

Double Points Finish:
20 points on Ferrari at 2.63 (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power) - LOSS
It was an afternoon to forget for Ferrari with Alonso finishing a disappointing seventh and Massa's race coming to an end on lap 28 due to an accident caused by suspension failure.

Number Of Classified Finishers In Race:
10 points on Under 16.5 at 2.0 (Ladbrokes) - WIN 20 points
The trend for a high number of retirements at Monaco continued with only 16 drivers classified at the end.

Race Leader After 1 Lap:
10 points on Nico Rosberg at 1.25 - WIN 13 points
As with every Grand Prix during 2013, the driver on pole crossed the line leading the race at the end of the first lap.

Making an overall return of 126 points from 100 points and therefore an overall profit of 26 points.

Taking A Risk/Longer Priced Bets:

Dual Forecast:
10 points on Sebastian Vettel/Mark Webber at 26.0 (Bet365)
Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber both made up a place at the pitstops, but a Red Bull one two ultimately proved to be too optimistic.

Top Six Finish: 
20 points on Romain Grosjean at 5.5 (Ladbrokes) - LOSS
Grosjean can be an unpredictably inconsistent driver, and it's fair to say that Monaco wasn't one of his better weekends.

Top Ten Finish: 
30 points on Paul di Resta at 2.75 (SkyBet, Ladbrokes) - WIN 83 points
Paul di Resta's consistent run continued with another points scoring finish, and the fact that it was achieved from a starting position of 17th on the grid meant that the odds on offer were a rather generous 2.75.

Lap 1 Retirements:
20 points on 'Exactly 2' at 7.5 (SkyBet) - LOSS
With street circuits like Monaco you would expect a greater chance of first lap incidents but as has been the case this season everyone got away safely and so 'No first lap retirements' once again proved to be the bet to go for.

Match Bets:
20 point accumulator on:  (Bet365) - LOSS
Sergio Perez V Jenson Button - Sergio Perez at 1.8 - LOSS
Jean-Eric Vergne V Daniel Ricciardo - Daniel Ricciardo at 2.1 - LOSS
Valtteri Bottas V Pastor Maldonado - Pastor Maldonado at 1.83 - LOSS
Not much luck here as the three drivers I backed all suffered from retirements.

Making an overall return of 83 points and therefore an overall loss of 17 points.

. . . . . . . .

From a betting point of view it was disappointing to see Sebastian Vettel still in second place after the pitstops, but as a formula 1 fan it prevents Vettel from opening up too big of a gap in the overall standings and therefore keeps the championship more interesting.

Next up is the Canadian Grand Prix so I'll be back next week with another set of pre and post qualifying tips, but before that over the next week I'll also be examining a few of the best bets by the statistics in various betting markets so far this season.

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Other recent posts:
The Monaco Grand Prix: Post-Qualifying Tips
The Monaco Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips
Spanish Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds

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