Wednesday, 8 May 2013

Spanish Grand Prix - The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Before each Grand Prix I usually make a set of predictions before and after qualifying and then compare which set of tips perform best.  However, as we had a three week gap between Bahrain and Spain, I also decided to analyse the performance of the drivers so far this season to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular betting markets.

You can find the full results in my previous posts over the last week but to summarise, going on the statistics from the first four Grand Prix of the season, the best bets so far have been...

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver - Kimi Raikkonen (125% profit / £9 return from £4 staked)
Podium Finish - Romain Grosjean (200% profit / £12 return from £4 staked)
Top Six Finish - Lewis Hamilton (49.75% profit / £5.99 return from £4 staked)
Top Ten Finish - Paul Di Resta (43.25% profit / £5.73 return from £4 staked)

The above results are based on the return you would have received if you placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix of the season.

Safest Bets:

Winning Driver - Sebastian Vettel (50% success rate)
Podium Finish - Kimi Raikkonen (75% success rate)
Top Six Finish - Lewis Hamilton (100% success rate)
Top Ten Finish - Romain Grosjean (100% success rate)

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As financial traders like to say, 'Past performance is no guarantee of future success,' and of course you also have to bear in mind that for Spain the bookies may be offering skinnier odds than usual on the above drivers, so I would advise treating the above results as simply one of many factors to consider when deciding who to bet on.

If you want to check out the the full 'Betting Profit' charts then you can find them at the following links:
The Form Guide After Bahrain - Part 1: Winning Driver / Podium Finish
The Form Guide After Bahrain - Part 2: Top Six Finish
The Form Guide After Bahrain - Part 3: Top Ten Finish

The Form Guide After Bahrain - Part 4: Miscellaneous Bets

If you reduce formula 1 to no more than a bunch of statistics then it takes the fun out of things, so as usual I'll also be making my own set of tips before and after qualifying for the Spanish Grand Prix and then analysing how my tips get on compared to the form guide.

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