Tuesday, 21 May 2013

The Form Guide After Spain: Part 4 - Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last few days I've analysed the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in the most popular formula 1 betting markets, and today I'm going to feature one final round-up covering a variety of bets such as fastest lap, fastest qualifier and a few other of the less popular formula 1 bets.

As you'll see, it's worth keeping an eye of some of the following betting markets as there are profits to be made...

Fastest Lap:

To start things off, here's the 'Betting Profit' chart for the fastest lap market:

Fastest LapProfit*Winning Bet
Esteban Gutierrez96.001
Sergio Perez16.001
Kimi Raikkonen5.001
Sebastian Vettel3.082
Rest Of The Field-5.000

* The 'Profit' column shows the amount of profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at each Grand Prix of the season.  Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.

Esteban Gutierrez leads the table with a huge £96 profit due to his fastest lap at Spain where he was priced at a massive 100/1!  As you can therefore see, fastest lap is a very unpredictable market, so if you fancy a speculative bet on formula 1 then this is perhaps one market definitely worth considering.

Fastest Qualifier:

Next up is the 'Betting Profit' chart for pole position which most bookies refer to as fastest qualifier:

Fastest QualifierProfitWinning Bet
Nico Rosberg14.002
Lewis Hamilton2.501
Sebastian Vettel0.952
Rest Of The Field-5.000

There's been serious money to be made in this market, as the Mercedes drivers have been priced very generously for pole position at most Grand Prix this season.  As you'd expect, the bookies are starting to catch on and Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg are priced considerably shorter for the Monaco Grand Prix, but given Mercedes' current qualifying form they're perhaps still worth a look.

Winning Margin:

The next chart is for Winning Margin:

Winning MarginProfitWinning Bet
6 seconds or more2.224
Under 6 seconds-3.171

We're yet to have a really dramatic close finish in 2013, with Red Bull's one two in Malaysia being the only occasional where we witnessed a winning margin of less than 6 seconds.  There's no guarantee that this trend will continue in Monaco, however, as it's generally regarded as the toughest track on the calendar for overtaking and therefore you often see faster cars unable to get past during the final stint, resulting in a train of cars crossing the line at the finish.

Safety Car:

Safety Car is one of the less popular formula 1 betting markets but it's worth a mention due to the trend emerging:

Safety CarProfitWinning Bet

The bookies have obviously noticed the trend for the lack of safety car action, as the odds on a safety car have gradually shortened as the season has progressed.  However, bear in mind that the enclosed street circuit nature of the Monaco Grand Prix with it's lack of run-off areas could mean that safety car driver Bernd Maylander finally gets to see some action this weekend.


Winning Team:

And finally here's the 'Betting Profit' chart for Winning Team:

Winning TeamProfitWinning Bet
Red Bull0.382
Rest Of The Field-5.000

Fernando Alonso seems to think that Mercedes are the favourites for Monaco, and admittedly the tricky overtaking conditions should help them if they manage to qualify on pole once again.  However, given that we've seen three and four stop strategies this season you would expect at least some of the teams to run varying strategies, so whoever gets on pole is still going to have their work cut out to maintain the lead for the duration of the race.  I'm therefore not totally convinced that Alonso's comments aren't more about taking the pressure off Ferrari, rather than representing his actual true opinion.

. . . . . . . .

Other recent posts:
The Form Guide After Spain: Part 1 - Winning Driver / Podium Finish
The Form Guide After Spain: Part 2 - Top Six Finish
The Form Guide After Spain: Part 3 - Top Ten Finish
Spanish Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds
Spanish Grand Prix: Barcelona Round-Up

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Odds were current at time of publication but are subject to change.

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