Thursday, 25 July 2013

Hungarian Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last week or so I've analysed recent results to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  The 'Betting Profit' charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the best bets in various categories, I've listed the top bets below.  Just to clarify, the results are based on the six most recent Grand Prix and to ensure the statistics have more relevance to recent form, I've weighted the results in favour of recent races using the following multipliers; Bahrain 16.7%, Spain 33.3%, Monaco 50%, Canada 66.7%, Britain 83.3% and Germany 100%:

Anyway, as we head to the Hungaroring the best bets in recent Grand Prix have been...

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver:  Nico Rosberg  (£9.17 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£10.50 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Jean-Eric Vergne  (£7.83 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£4.13 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Nico Rosberg  (£3.17 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (£1.37 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Lewis Hamilton  (£2.36 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Esteban Gutierrez  (£30.17 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Nico Rosberg  (£3.17 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Jean-Eric Vergne  (£13.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Ferrari  (£9.50 profit rating)
Safety Car:  Yes  (£1.45 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  None  (£1.99 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  Under 6 Seconds  (£0.93 profit rating)

N.B. To produce the profit rating, I've first calculated the return you would have received if you placed a £1 bet on the same driver/result at each of the last six Grand Prix based on the odds when the market first opened, i.e. before practise and qualifying.  I've then applied the aforementioned multipliers to any profit/loss to ensure the statistics place more relevance on recent form.

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And if you're looking for a 'safe' bet, then here are the bets which have come up most often in the last six Grand Prix:

Safest Bets:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (3 wins from 6 Grand Prix)
Podium Finish:  Sebastian Vettel  (4 podiums from 6 GP)
Top Six Finish:  Lewis Hamilton  (5 top six finishes from 6 GP)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Rosberg  (6 top ten finishes from 6 GP)
Fastest Qualifier:  Nico Rosberg  (3 poles from 6 GP)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (3 wins from 6 GP)
Qualify On Front Row:  Lewis Hamilton  (5 front rows from 6 GP)
Fastest Lap:  Mark Webber  (2 fastest laps from 6 GP)
Lap 1 Leader:  Nico Rosberg  (3 from 6 GP)
First To Retire:  Jean-Eric Vergne  (2 from 6 GP)
First Team To Retire:  Toro Rosso  (2 from 6 GP)
Safety Car:  Yes  (3 from 6 GP)
Lap 1 Retirements:  None  (6 from 6 GP)
Winning Margin:  Under 6 Seconds  (3 from 6 GP)

N.B. When two or more drivers/results have achieved an equal success rate, I have listed the driver/result which would have returned the biggest profit.

Bear in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future success!

If you'd like to check out the more detailed 'Betting Profit' charts then you can find them at the following links:
The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish
The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish
The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish
The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

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