"We've got a steep hill to climb with these tyres and if we did win it would be a miracle." ...Lewis Hamilton
Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Hungarian Grand Prix and now that the starting grid has been decided I'm going to follow things up with another set of predictions .
Also, starting from the Hungarian Grand Prix I'm going to carry my profit/loss forward in each category of bets (pre and post qualifying/shorter and longer priced bets) to make it easier to track how each category of bets performs. This should make it easier to compare the relative risks of sticking with the favourites versus going for a few long shots and also to decide whether it's wiser to place your bets before or after qualifying.
Anyway, here are my post-qualifying tips for the Hungarian Grand Prix...
Shorter Priced Bets:Top Ten Finish:
10 points on Nico Hulkenberg at 2.75 (Bet Fred)
Nico Hulkenberg has done reasonably okay on his two previous visits to the Hungaroring (6th in 2010 and 11th in 2012) and he's also currently the most profitable Top Ten bet based on the recent form guide, so I'm going to go for a small punt on that form to continue with another points scoring finish.
Lap 1 Retirements:
20 points on Lap 1 Retrements - Nil at 1.5 (SkyBet, Paddy Power)
This has been the most consistant bet of the season and if you'd bet £1 on No Lap 1 Retirements at every Grand Prix then you'd currently be £5.48 in profit.
10 points on Under 6.5 Seconds at 1.85 (William Hill)
We've seen close finishes in recent races with the British and German Grand Prix won by 0.7 and 1.0 seconds. In Q3 the top six drivers were separated by less than half a second, so once again things look competitive and we may be in for another close race. I was almost tempted to go for the 'Under 3 Seconds' offered by Bet365 at odds of 3.6, but in the end I've decided to give myself a bigger margin and go for the 'Under 6.5 Seconds' offered by William Hill at odds of 1.85.
Taking A Risk/Longer Priced Bets:Winning Driver:
5 points eachway* (10 points in total) on Romain Grosjean at 7.0 (SkyBet, Coral, BetFred, Totesport)
The hot temperatures are predicted to hurt Mercedes more than most teams during the race, so you can understand why the bookies go with Vettel and not Hamilton as the favourite for the victory. However, Vettel is odds on with every bookie, so looking at the rest of the field it's Grosjean and Alonso who I fancy as the potential biggest threats to Vettel's chances. Grosjean has looked strong all weekend and was also in contention at the Nurburgring a few weeks ago. However, given that his best result so far in his F1 career was his second place at Canada last year, an outright bet on the victory looks an overly brave bet, and I'm therefore going to limit the risk by going for Grosjean eachway.
* SkyBet pay 1/5 the odds for the first three places for an eachway bet.
Not To Be Classified:
10 points on Jean-Eric Vergne at 3.75 (Bet Victor)
It's only a few weeks since Jean-Eric Vergne was being mentioned as a contender to replace Mark Webber at Red Bull next year. That possibility seems now to have faded, and that's probably down to Vergne's lack of consistency in finishing races. When he's made it to the chequered flag he's put in some strong results, but at 4 of the last 6 Grand Prix he's suffered DNFs. To be fair, his retirements have been largely down to reliability issues from his Toro Rosso rather than driver mistakes, but whatever the reason, at odds of 3.75 he's a reasonably appealing bet for another DNF.
10 point accumulator on: (Bet 365)
Fernando Alonso V Lewis Hamilton - Fernando Alonso - 1.61
Pastor Maldonado V Valtteri Bottas - Pastor Maldonado - 1.83
Charles Pic V Giedo van der Garde - Charles Pic - 1.25
As usual I'll report back after the Grand Prix on how events unfolded.
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If you want to check out my pre-qualifying tips you can find them at the following link:
The Hungarian Grand Prix: Hungaroring Pre-Qualifying Tips
Or if you prefer to consult the form guide when deciding on your formula 1 bets then you can find the best bets by the form guide at the following link:
Hungarian Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide
Finally, you can find a more detailed analysis of various formula 1 betting markets at the following links:
The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish
The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish
The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish
The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets
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Footnote: All odds were correct at time of publication but are subject to change.