Friday, 26 July 2013

The Hungarian Grand Prix: Hungaroring Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Hungarian Grand Prix

For previous Grand Prix I've given myself 100 points and then made a selection of pre and post qualifying tips split between shorter and longer priced bets.

However, starting from the Hungarian Grand Prix I'm going to carry my profit/loss forward in each category for every Grand Prix to make it easier to track how each category of bets performs.  This should make it easier to decide whether it's better to place your bets before or after qualifying and also make it easier to compare the relative risks of sticking with the favourites versus going for a few long shots.

If I'd followed this format since the Spanish Grand Prix (when I first started splitting my tips into shorter priced and longer priced bets), then my Post-Qualifying Shorter Priced Tips would currently be on a total of 204 points, i.e. a cumulative profit of 104 points.  My Post-Qualifying Longer Priced Tips and Pre-Qualifying Shorter Priced tips on the other hand would both be completely wiped out, suggesting a punt on relatively low-risk bets after qualifying is maybe the safest strategy to follow.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Hungarian Grand Prix and I'll see how I get on...

Shorter Priced Bets:

10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.0 (SkyBet)
Red Bull have grabbed the headlines with a one two in both P1 and P2, and Vettel has reportedly also had the fastest long run pace, but at such short odds he doesn't hold much appeal.  There hasn't been that much in it at the front with the Lotus and Ferrari drivers in the mix behind Red Bull, and in P2 Fernando was less than two tenths of a second behind Vettel.  Alonso also tends to make up places during the race, so if he gets a decent qualifying position then he looks to be a decent podium bet.

Qualifying Match Bets:
10 point accumulator on:  (Bet365)
Lewis Hamilton V Nico Rosberg - Lewis Hamilton at 1.57
Sebastian Vettel V Mark Webber - Sebastian Vettel at 1.2

Number Of Classified Finishers:
10 points on Over 18.5 Finishers at 1.67 (Sporting Bet)
Of the previous six Grand Prix, all but Monaco have seen 19 or more classified finishers.

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Taking A Risk/Longer Priced Bets:

Top Six Finish:
10 points on Jenson Button at 3.25 (Bet Victor, Coral)
Despite McLaren's struggles this year, Jenson Button has actually been a decent bet in the Top Six Finish market with 2 top six finishes from the last 4 Grand Prix.  A lot will depend on how the usual front runners go, and specifically on whether Mercedes can manage to make their tyres last in the hot temperatures, but if Mercedes have a difficult weekend then Jenson could be well placed to take advantage.

Qualify On Front Row:
5 points on Romain Grosjean at 13.0 (SkyBet)
This is a longshot so I'm keeping it to a small bet, but based on the evidence so far this weekend, Lotus have perhaps looked the team most likely to challenge Red Bull in qualifying.   Romain Grosjean showed improved form at the Nurburgring, and he qualified second on the grid here last year, so it's not totally impossible that he could do it again.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
10 points on Under 0.15 Seconds at 2.75 (Bet365)
Lewis Hamilton was dominant in qualifying at Silverstone, but other than that things have been very competitive at the front of the grid, and 3 of the last 4 qualifying sessions have seen pole position achieved by close to a tenth of a second.

. . . . . . . .

As I mentioned at the start of this post, my post-qualifying shorter priced tips have been the most successful bets in recent Grand Prix, so it may be wise to see how the grid shapes up after qualifying before deciding on the best formula 1 bets this weekend.

Or if you prefer to go by the form guide (which may be wise based on my recent form), then you can find the best bets by the form guide at the following link:
Hungarian Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Finally, you can find a more detailed analysis of various formula 1 betting markets at the following links:
The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish
The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish
The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish
The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

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Footnote:  All odds were correct at time of publication but are subject to change.

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