Tuesday, 9 July 2013

German Grand Prix: Round-Up

"I’m happy the race wasn’t two or three laps longer, as Kimi was a bit quicker towards the end." ...Sebastian Vettel

After a season which has seen the majority of Grand Prix won by reasonably comfortable margins, the Nurburgring provided the closest finish yet, with the top four separated by less than eight seconds at the chequered flag.  As late as lap 47 SkyBet were still offering odds of 1.67 on a winning margin of Under 6.5 Seconds so that's one 'bet in play' market worth keeping an eye on at future Grand Prix.

My longer priced post-qualifying tips managed to sneak the narrowest of profits thanks to my accumulator, but other than that in my other bets it was a case of too many near misses, with Fernando Alonso for a podium, Paul di Resta to finish in the points, and Mark Webber to qualify on the front row all missing out by a single place.  For the Hungarian Grand Prix in three weeks' time, I may therefore try a new format for the blog, but in the mean time here's a brief summary of how I got on...


Taking A Risk/Longer Priced Bets:

My eachway bet on Mark Webber was doomed after Mark's first pitstop, but as Christian Horner says, "The most important thing today is that the cameraman who got struck by the tyre does not appear to have suffered any life threatening injuries."  As already mentioned, my accumulator bet was a winning bet thanks to Paul di Resta, Jenson Button and Kimi Raikkonen all finishing ahead of their team-mates...

Match Bets:
30 point accumulator on:  WIN - 101 points
Paul di Resta V Adrian Sutil - Paul di Resta at 1.62
Jenson Button V Sergio Perez - Jenson Button at 1.57
Kimi Raikkonen V Romain Grosjean - Kimi Raikkonen at 1.33

Shorter Priced Bets:

I had too many near misses in this group of bets, with Fernando Alonso for a podium and Paul di Resta to finish in the points both missing out by a single place.  The two bets which came up were statistical bets where I went with the form guide...

Total Classified Finishers:
10 points on Over 18.5 Finishers at 1.8 - WIN 18 points
Once again we saw relatively decent reliability with 19 classified finishers and that's now five of the last six Grand Prix which have seen 19 or more classified finishers.

Lap 1 Retirements:
30 points on Lap 1 Retirements - None at 1.53 - WIN 46 points
This has been one of the most reliable bets of the year and yet again it proved to be a winning bet.


My pre-qualifying bets were almost a total letdown with Lewis Hamilton to qualify on the front row being the only winning bet.  Lewis's pole lap extends his record to five successive Grand Prix now where he has qualified on the front row, so expect him to be priced similarly short at the Hungarian Grand Prix for another front row in qualfiying.

Since I first started splitting my predictions into shorter and longer priced bets, after an encouraging start I've now hit a rough patch of form, so as mentioned I may try something slightly different for the Hungarian Grand Prix

We now have a three week break until the Hungaroring so over the next few weeks I'll be analysing the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season based on the form guide.

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