Saturday, 20 July 2013

The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Following the German Grand Prix, I've analysed the statistics to produce the latest 'Betting Profit' charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the 'Winning Driver' betting market and over the next few days I'll also be analysing a few other betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

As usual I've produced two form charts; the first based on the entire 2013 season and the second weighted in favour of recent races.

For the benefit of anyone new to F1 Tips blog, the first chart shows the usual 'Betting Profit' returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each Grand Prix so far this season...

Standard 'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver:

Winning DriverProfit*Winning Bet
Nico Rosberg9.002
Sebastian Vettel3.934
Kimi Raikkonen0.001
Fernando Alonso-0.752
Rest Of The Field-9.000

* As a reminder, the 'Profit' column shows the amount of profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix this season.  
Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.


The second chart is weighted in favour of recent races to take into account the fact that recent form obviously has more relevance to forthcoming results.  To be specific I've applied the following multipliers for each Grand Prix; Bahrain 16.7%, for Spain 33.3%, for Monaco 50%, for Canada 66.7%, for Britain 83.3% and for Germany 100%:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver Weighted In Favour Of Current Form:

Winning DriverProfitWinning Bet
Nico Rosberg9.172
Sebastian Vettel2.433
Fernando Alonso-2.251
Rest Of The Field-3.500

Whichever chart you favour, Nico Rosberg and Sebastian Vettel have been the only profitable bets.  Rosberg has by far and away been the top bet, due to the longer odds available on him compared to Vettel who has generally been the bookies' favourite.  Vettel, however, has been the safer bet, with 3 victories in the last 6 Grand Prix.

Over the next few days I'll be analysing a few other betting markets and next up is the Podium Finish market.

Follow F1Tips on twitter:

Sign up for the free OLBG Motor Racing betting competition for a chance to win free bets:
Betting With Points To Win Free Bets And Cash Prizes

Pretty Green 468x60

No comments:

Post a Comment