Formula 1 Betting By Numbers
Today I report on the Top Ten Finish market and as usual I've produced two charts; the first based on the entire 2013 season and the second weighted in favour of recent form.
For the benefit of anyone new to F1 Tips Blog, the first chart shows the profit you would have made if you'd bet £1 on the same driver to finish in the points at every Grand Prix of the year:
| Top 10 Finish | Profit* | Winning Bet |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 3.83 | 4 |
| Paul Di Resta | 2.15 | 7 |
| Kimi Raikkonen | 1.59 | 9 |
| Jean-Eric Vergne | 1.50 | 3 |
| Mark Webber | 0.69 | 8 |
| Lewis Hamilton | 0.68 | 8 |
| Fernando Alonso | 0.32 | 8 |
| Sebastian Vettel | 0.26 | 8 |
| Nico Rosberg | -0.17 | 7 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | -0.50 | 3 |
| Jenson Button | -0.53 | 6 |
| Felipe Massa | -1.24 | 6 |
| Sergio Perez | -1.50 | 4 |
| Romain Grosjean | -1.82 | 5 |
| Adrian Sutil | -2.19 | 4 |
| Rest Of The Field | -9.00 | 0 |
* Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.
The biggest mover since the last time I did this chart is Nico Hulkenberg who jumps straight to the top as the most proftable Top Ten bet thanks to his two recent points scoring finishes at Silverstone and the Nurburgring. Paul di Resta also remains a strong bet, despite just missing out on the points at the German Grand Prix.
This is how the 'Betting Profit' chart for the Top Ten Finish market looks when the statistics are weighted in favour of recent form:
| Top 10 Finish | Profit* | |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 4.13 | |
| Nico Rosberg | 0.83 | |
| Mark Webber | 0.65 | |
| Kimi Raikkonen | 0.59 | |
| Fernando Alonso | 0.54 | |
| Lewis Hamilton | 0.27 | |
| Jean-Eric Vergne | -0.04 | |
| Paul di Resta | -0.07 | |
| Jenson Button | -0.34 | |
| Sergio Perez | -0.41 | |
| Sebastian Vettel | -0.42 | |
| Daniel Ricciardo | -0.50 | |
| Adrian Sutil | -0.54 | |
| Felipe Massa | -1.11 | |
| Romain Grosjean | -1.76 | |
| Rest Of The Field | -3.50 |
Just as a reminder or for anyone new to F1 Tips blog, for this second chart I've applied the following multipliers for each Grand Prix; Bahrain 16.7%, Spain 33.3%, Monaco 50%, Canada 66.7%, Britain 83.3% and Germany 100%:
Looking at both charts it demonstrates that if you're looking for less risk then the Top Ten betting market is the one to go for as eight drivers have currently been profitable bets when all Grand Prix so far this year are taken into account. It also shows that there's more than one winning strategy for making a profit, with Kimi Raikkonen the driver to go for if you're after a safe bet and Nico Hulkenberg having proved to be the best bet for punters who are prepared to accept a few losses along the way for the chance of a decent profit in the long run.
Follow F1Tips on twitter:
@F1TipsBlog
Other recent posts:
The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish
The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish
German Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds
Motor Racing Betting Competition To Win Free Bets And Cash Prizes
No comments:
Post a Comment