Wednesday, 24 July 2013

The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As usual I'm going to round-off my review of the form guide by taking a look at a selection of miscellaneous formula 1 betting markets such as fastest lap, fastest qualifier, etc.

The following form guide charts charts are based on the last six races and I've weighted things in favour of recent results by applying the following multipliers for each Grand Prix: Bahrain 16.7%, Spain 33.3%, Monaco 50%, Canada 66.7%, Britain 83.3% and Germany 100%.

Fastest Lap:

First of all, here's the 'Betting Profit' chart for the fastest lap:

Fastest LapProfit*Winning Bet
Esteban Gutierrez30.171
Mark Webber11.172
Fernando Alonso6.501
Sebastian Vettel-0.882
Rest Of The Field-3.500

Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.

As you can see this can be a tricky market to predict but it's perhaps worth a dabble if you're looking for the prospect of greater returns and don't mind a considerably greater risk.

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Fastest Qualifier:

Next up is the 'Betting Profit' chart for 'Pole Position' or 'Fastest Q3 Qualifying Time' as some bookies refer to it:

Fastest QualifierProfitWinning Bet
Nico Rosberg3.173
Lewis Hamilton2.052
Sebastian Vettel-1.171
Rest Of The Field-3.500

Mercedes are the team in form when it comes to qualifying with only Sebastian Vettel having managed to break their stranglehold on pole position.

Winning Margin:

Most bookies also offer a market on the Winning Margin of each Grand Prix and at SkyBet they go with 6 seconds as the dividing line:

Winning MarginProfitWinning Bet
Under 6 seconds 0.933
6 seconds or more-1.453

Early in the season we had very few close finishes and therefore '6 seconds or more' was definitely the bet to go for.  However, with three wins apiece from the last six Grand Prix the 'Winning Margin' market is getting trickier to predict and this is maybe one bet to avoid for the moment.


Safety Car:

Here's the current results for betting on the Safety Car:

Safety CarProfitWinning Bet

At the last three Grand Prix the bookies have got this one wrong with the higher priced bet in the 'Safety Car' market being a winner each time out at Montreal, Silverstone and the Nurburgring.

Winning Team:

Finally, here's the 'Betting Profit' chart for Winning Team:

Winning TeamProfitWinning Bet
Red Bull0.253
Rest Of The Field-5.200

Mercedes have been the most profitable bet based on the last six Grand Prix but they're proving to be the most inconsistent of the front running teams and Red Bull have been a safer bet.

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Other recent posts:
The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish
The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish
German Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds
Betting With Points To Win Free Bets And Cash Prizes

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