Sunday, 2 June 2013

The Form Guide After Monaco: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

In my last post I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver market and this time it's the turn of the Podium Finish betting market.

Once again I've produced two charts, with the first showing the usual 'Betting Profit' returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver for a podium at each Grand Prix of 2013...

Standard 'Betting Profit' Chart For A Podium Finish:

Podium FinishProfit*Winning Bet
Romain Grosjean6.001
Kimi Raikkonen2.424
Mark Webber0.752
Sebastian Vettel0.114
Lewis Hamilton0.002
Fernando Alonso-0.833
Felipe Massa-1.001
Nico Rosberg-3.801
Rest Of The Field-6.000

* As a reminder, the 'Profit' column shows the amount of profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix this season.  Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.

And for a slightly different perspective, for the second chart I've weighted things in favour of recent races so that the most recent Grand Prix have more relevance to the overall results.  To be specific, for Australia I've applied a 16.7% multiplier, for Malaysia 33.3%, for China 50%, for Bahrain 66.7%, for Spain 83.3% and for Monaco 100%:

Podium FinishProfitWinning Bet
Romain Grosjean4.501
Mark Webber0.922
Felipe Massa0.671
Kimi Raikkonen0.584
Sebastian Vettel-0.204
Lewis Hamilton-1.042
Fernando Alonso-1.103
Nico Rosberg-1.301
Rest Of The Field-3.500

Weighting the form guide more heavily based on recent Grand Prix resulted in quite significant changes to the Winning Driver chart, but as you can see for the Podium Finish market the changes aren't quite so dramatic.  Felipe Massa moves up a couple of places thanks to his podium at Barcelona, but Romain Grosjean remains the most profitable bet thanks to his 3rd place in Bahrain.

Once again, I'm not sure exactly how much significance to give to these 'Betting Profit' charts but they're maybe worth considering when deciding who to bet on at the Canadian Grand Prix.

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Other recent posts:
The Form Guide After Monaco: Part 1 - Winning Driver
Monaco Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds
Monaco Grand Prix: Tips Round-Up
The Monaco Grand Prix: Post-Qualifying Tips
The Monaco Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

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