Formula 1 Betting By Numbers
Today I move onto the Top Ten Finish market and as usual I've produced two charts; the first based on the entire 2013 season and the second weighted in favour of recent form.
For the benefit of anyone new to F1 Tips Blog, the first chart shows the profit you would have made if you'd bet £1 on the same driver to finish in the points at every Grand Prix of the year:
| Top 10 Finish | Profit* | Winning Bet |
| Jean-Eric Vergne | 3.50 | 3 |
| Paul Di Resta | 2.82 | 6 |
| Kimi Raikkonen | 1.25 | 7 |
| Sebastian Vettel | 1.13 | 7 |
| Mark Webber | 0.38 | 6 |
| Lewis Hamilton | 0.37 | 6 |
| Fernando Alonso | 0.04 | 6 |
| Jenson Button | -0.33 | 5 |
| Felipe Massa | -0.57 | 5 |
| Nico Rosberg | -0.59 | 5 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | -1.00 | 2 |
| Romain Grosjean | -1.35 | 4 |
| Sergio Perez | -1.75 | 3 |
| Adrian Sutil | -1.76 | 3 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | -2.42 | 2 |
| Rest Of The Field | -7.00 | 0 |
* Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.
Jean-Eric Vergne has been in good form recently and it shows by his place at the top of the chart as the most profitable bet.
Technically speaking, Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkon have been the safest bets, registering a points scoring finish at every Grand Prix of 2013, but Paul di Resta isn't far behind. At Monaco and Canada, qualifying mix-ups meant that Paul qualified 17th on the grid so if you'd backed him after qualifying you would have got even bigger returns than those shown above.
This is how the 'Betting Profit' chart for the Top Ten Finish market looks when the statistics are weighted in favour of recent form:
| Top 10 Finish | Profit* | |
| Jean-Eric Vergne | 2.71 | |
| Paul Di Resta | 1.30 | |
| Kimi Raikkonen | 0.58 | |
| Sebastian Vettel | 0.57 | |
| Nico Rosberg | 0.53 | |
| Fernando Alonso | 0.38 | |
| Mark Webber | 0.36 | |
| Lewis Hamilton | -0.03 | |
| Jenson Button | -0.33 | |
| Daniel Ricciardo | -0.58 | |
| Felipe Massa | -0.75 | |
| Adrian Sutil | -0.89 | |
| Sergio Perez | -1.21 | |
| Romain Grosjean | -2.16 | |
| Nico Hulkenberg | -2.34 | |
| Rest Of The Field | -3.50 |
Just as a reminder or for anyone new to F1 Tips blog, for this second chart I've applied the following multipliers for each Grand Prix; Malaysia 16.7%, China 33.3%, Bahrain 50%, Spain 66.7%, Monaco 83.3% and for Canada 100%.
As you can see there isn't a great deal of change at the top of the chart with Jean-Eric Vergne and Paul di Resta still the most profitable bets to go for. Nico Rosberg moves up a few places due to his early season retirements having less effect on the overall results, but other than that things are more or less unchanged.
As I've mentioned before, overall with the Top Ten betting market the profit spread isn't quite so dramatic as some of the earlier charts, so if you're looking for a bet with less risk attached, but obviously also less chance of a high return, then this is probably the market to go for.
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Other recent posts:
The British Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The British Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish
The British Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish
Canada Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds
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