Sunday, 16 June 2013

The British Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As usual I've analysed the statistics after the Canadian Grand Prix to produce the latest 'Betting Profit' charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.  As we have a three week gap between Montreal and Silverstone, I'll also be analysing a few other betting markets over the next few days such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

Once again I've produced two form charts; the first based on the entire 2013 season and the second weighted in favour of recent races.

For the benefit of anyone new to F1 Tips blog, the first chart shows the usual 'Betting Profit' returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each Grand Prix so far this season...

Standard 'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver:

Winning DriverProfit*Winning Bet
Sebastian Vettel3.053
Kimi Raikkonen2.001
Fernando Alonso1.252
Nico Rosberg0.001
Rest Of The Field-7.000

* As a reminder, the 'Profit' column shows the amount of profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix this season.  
Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.

As you can see, if you'd consistently stuck to one of the three favourites in the championship battle, then whoever you'd bet on you'd currently be in profit.


The second chart is weighted in favour of recent races to take into account the fact that recent form obviously has more relevance to forthcoming results.  To be specific I've applied the following multipliers for each Grand Prix; Malaysia 16.7%, for China 33.3%, for Bahrain 50%, for Spain 66.7%, for Monaco 83.3% and for Canada 100%:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver Weighted In Favour Of Current Form:

Winning DriverProfitWinning Bet
Sebastian Vettel3.503
Nico Rosberg3.331
Fernando Alonso-0.52
Rest Of The Field-3.500

As you'd expect, Sebastian Vettel remains the most profitable bet thanks to his recent Canadian victory and despite only one victory to his name Nico Rosberg is only narrowly behind thanks to the 7.0 on offer for him to win at his home race in Monaco.

Next up over the next few days I'll be analysing the Podium Finish market.

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Other recent posts:
Canadian Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds
Canada Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds
Which Formula 1 Driver Is Most Popular In His Home Country?
What Are The Most Popular Worldwide Sports Based On Google Searches?

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