Wednesday, 5 June 2013

The Canadian Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Canadian Grand Prix

Yesterday I listed the drivers who've been the most profitable formula 1 bets so far in 2013 in four of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  Today I'm going to see how I get on against the form guide by making a set of pre-qualifying tips and then follow this up on Saturday evening with a set of post-qualifying tips.

Following the pattern from the last two races, I'm going to split my tips into a selection of shorter priced bets and a selection of higher priced more risky bets.

Last time at Monaco thanks to bets such as 'Double Red Bull podium', 'Romain Grosjean not to be classified' and 'Nico Rosberg to be fastest qualifier' my longer priced tips performed extremely well making a return of 324 points from an initial 100 points and therefore an overall profit of 224 points.  My supposedly 'safer bets' however performed disappointingly, returning only 38 points from 100 points, so bear in mind that there's no such thing as a safe bet.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying predictions for the Canadian Grand Prix split into two categories...

Playing It Safe/Shorter Priced Bets:

Fastest Qualifier:
20 points on Nico Rosberg at 3.5 (Ladbrokes)

Mercedes are the team in form when it comes to qualifying pace and Nico Rosberg currently has the upper hand over Lewis Hamilton with a run of three consecutive pole positions.

Podium Finish:
20 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 1.83 (SkyBet)
Kimi Raikkonen had a result to forget at Monaco, but he's generally been a solid podium bet with four podiums from six Grand Prix in 2013.

Top Six Finish:
20 points on Mark Webber at 1.62 (SkyBet)
The safest bets in the Top Six Finish market are Sebastian Vettel and Lewis Hamilton with 11 top six finishes between them this season.  However, as you'd expect their odds as a result are very skinny, so I'm therefore going to look slightly down the betting order and go for Mark Webber to record his fifth top six finish of the season.

Safety Car:
20 points on 'Safety Car - Yes' at 1.5 (SkyBet)
Monaco was the first time this year that safety car driver Bernd Maylander got to see any action, so the general trend has definitely seen 'No Safety Car' as the bet to go for in this market.  However, there does sometimes tend to be a tendency at Canada for cars to get sucked into the infamous 'Wall Of Champions' after the last corner which inevitably leads to a safety car period, so there's a higher than usual chance of a safety car at Montreal when compared with other circuits.

Number Of Driver To Finish:
20 points on Under 17.5 at 2.25 (PaddyPower)
The average number of finishers so far this season has been 18.33, so I'm going slightly against the trend with this one.  However, while perhaps not quite level with Monaco when it comes to the attrition stakes, Canada nevertheless tends to cause more than its fair share of retirements.  The last five Canadian Grand Prix having seen 4, 6, 5, 7 and 10 drivers not classified, so a bet on five retirements isn't perhaps as ambitious as it first sounds.

Taking A Risk/Longer Priced Bets:

Race Winner:
10 points eachway (20 points in total) on Lewis Hamilton at 6.0 (Ladbrokes)*
This is a risky one given Mercedes' tyre issues and that Lewis admitted after qualifying at Monaco that he's been 'struggling all year' with his Mercedes.  When you also consider that Lewis pinpointed 'the uncertainty of what the brakes are going to do' as his main problem, and that Montreal is one of the circuits on the calendar where brakes are especially important, it only makes this bet seem like even more of a risk.

However, Lewis has won three of the last five Canadian Grand Prix and the two years he didn't win he suffered retirements, so he clearly loves the circuit.  I'm therefore going for Lewis but I'm hedging my bets by making it an eachway bet.

* Ladbrokes pay 1/5 the odds on the first 3 places for an eachway bet.

Podium Finish:
10 points on Romain Grosjean at 17.0 (Ladbrokes, PaddyPower)
This is my highest priced bet of the lot and admittedly it's a speculative bet to say the least, but Canada can be an unpredictable Grand Prix and Grosjean has a habit of recording the occasional podium.  Romain has a ten place grid penalty to contend with, but starting position here isn't as vital as it was at Monaco for example, especially if we get a wet or damp race.  Grosjean was second here last year so at odds of 17.0 the potential generous returns mean the risk of a small bet is perhaps worth a look.

Top Six Finish:
20 points on Sergio Perez at 4.5 (SkyBet, PaddyPower, Bet365)
Sergio Perez only has one top six finish so far this season so this is another one which is a bit of a risk, but he went well at Montreal last year when he achieved his first podium in formula 1.  A lot will depend on his ability to stay out of trouble, as Canada isn't always as forgiving with incidents as other circuits, but at odds of 4.5 Perez is maybe worth a look if you're looking for a longer priced bet.

Not To Be Classified:
20 points on Fernando Alonso at 6.5 (PaddyPower)
Last time out I recommended Monaco as a circuit where the 'Not To Be Classified' market was worth considering and Canada is another circuit in that category.  Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso have both retired with accident damage from two of the last four Canadian Grand Prix (maybe the characteristics of the Gilles-Villeneuve Circuit don't suit their competitive nature), but as I'm backing Lewis for the victory I'm going to go for a speculative bet on Alonso to record another DNF at odds of 6.5.

Fastest in Practise 1:
30 points on Nico Rosberg at 5.0 (Ladbrokes, PaddyPower, Bet365)
This one is more of a risk than the pole position bet because obviously teams may not necessarily be on the same length runs during each practise session, and that's reflected by the lengthier odds.  However, Mercedes and Nico Rosberg in particular were dominant in practise at Monaco, recording a clean sweep with the fastest time in each practise session.  Odds of 5.0 are therefore enough to tempt me into a punt on Nico once again to hit the ball running with the fastest time in practise 1.


Last time out before qualifying it was my longer priced bets which performed strongest whereas after qualifying my shorter priced bets had the edge, so if you're after a speculative bet then now may be the time to go for it, but as always treat the above tips with caution!

If you want to check out the best bets so far this season by the form guide then you can find them at the following link:
Canadian Grand Prix - The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Other recent posts:
The Form Guide After Monaco: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The Form Guide After Monaco: Part 2 - Podium Finish
The Form Guide After Monaco: Part 3 - Top Six Finish
Monaco Grand Prix: Tips Round-Up
Monaco Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds

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Odds were current at time of publication but are subject to change.

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