Tuesday, 18 June 2013

The British Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

A few days ago I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver market and today I'm going to look at the Podium Finish betting market.

Once again I've produced two charts; the first based on the entire 2013 season and the second weighted in favour of the form in recent races.

For the benefit of anyone new to F1 Tips blog, the first chart shows the profit you'd have made from a £1 bet if you'd backed the same driver for a podium at each Grand Prix of 2013...

Standard 'Betting Profit' Chart For A Podium Finish:

Podium FinishProfit*Winning Bet
Romain Grosjean5.001
Kimi Raikkonen1.424
Lewis Hamilton1.203
Sebastian Vettel0.615
Mark Webber-0.252
Fernando Alonso-0.304
Felipe Massa-2.001
Nico Rosberg-4.801
Rest Of The Field-7.000

* As a reminder, the 'Profit' column shows the amount of profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix this season.  Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.

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For the second chart I've weighted things in favour of recent Grand Prix to allow for the fact that recent form obviously has more relevance to forthcoming results.  To be specific I've applied the following multipliers for each Grand Prix; Malaysia 16.7%, China 33.3%, Bahrain 50%, Spain 66.7%, Monaco 83.3% and for Canada 100%:

Podium FinishProfit
Romain Grosjean2.50
Sebastian Vettel0.28
Lewis Hamilton0.16
Felipe Massa-0.17
Mark Webber-0.21
Fernando Alonso-0.43
Kimi Raikkonen-0.83
Nico Rosberg-1.67
Rest Of The Field-3.50

Kimi Raikkonen was the top podium bet earlier in the season but his recent results haven't been as impressive and Lotus look to have lost their way a little.  Despite the skinny odds which are regularly offered on Sebastian Vettel, his consistent form nevertheless means that he sneaks a slight profit in the podium betting market.

Still to come are the 'Betting Profit' charts for Top Six finish and Top Ten finish and I'll be taking a look at them over the next few days.

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Other recent posts:
The British Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
Canadian Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds
Canada Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds
Which Formula 1 Driver Is Most Popular In His Home Country?
What Are The Most Popular Worldwide Sports Based On Google Searches?

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