Monday, 3 June 2013

The Form Guide After Monaco: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Before I make my tips for the Canadian Grand Prix, I'm going to sneak in one more post analysing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Today it's the turn of the Top Six betting market and following the trend with my previous two posts, once again I've compiled two 'Betting Profit' charts.  The first chart shows the profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix of 2013 for a top six finish...

Standard 'Betting Profit' Chart For A Top Six Finish:

Top 6 Finish Profit* Winning Bet
Lewis Hamilton 1.52 5
Sebastian Vettel 1.51 6
Felipe Massa 1.26 4
Mark Webber 0.49 4
Nico Rosberg -0.18 4
Romain Grosjean -0.37 1
Kimi Raikkonen -0.70 4
Sergio Perez -1.00 1
Jenson Button -1.42 2
Fernando Alonso -2.16 3
Paul Di Resta -2.25 1
Adrian Sutil -3.25 1
Rest Of The Field-6.000

Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.

As you can see, only four drivers have recorded an overall profit this season, with Lewis Hamilton narrowly pipping Sebastian Vettel to the title of most profitable bet.  Vettel is the safest bet though, having finished in the top six at every Grand Prix during 2013.

The second chart is weighted in favour of more recent races and for the benefit of anyone new to F1 Tips blog, I've used a 16.7% multiplier for Australia, 33.3% for Malaysia, 50% for China, 66.7% for Bahrain, 83.3% for Spain and 100% for Monaco:

Top 6 FinishProfit
Sebastian Vettel0.87
Nico Rosberg0.49
Lewis Hamilton0.46
Mark Webber0.27
Jenson Button-0.02
Sergio Perez-0.17
Felipe Massa-0.46
Romain Grosjean-0.66
Kimi Raikkonen -0.74
Adrian Sutil-0.75
Paul Di Resta-1.00
Fernando Alonso-1.62
Rest Of The Field-3.50

One surprise was to see that Fernando Alonso has been the least profitable of the top drivers when it comes to top six betting, but I suppose that's a reflection of the 'all or nothing' season he's been having.  On the three occasions when he's finished in the top six, two have been victories and one was a second place, so on current form Alonso would seem to be a wiser bet for the victory or a podium than for a top six finish.

As usual over the coming days I'll be making a set of tips before and after qualifying for the Canadian Grand Prix and then analysing how my tips get on compared to the form guide.

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Other recent posts:
The Form Guide After Monaco: Part 2 - Podium Finish
The Form Guide After Monaco: Part 1 - Winning Driver
Monaco Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds
Monaco Grand Prix: Tips Round-Up


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