Sunday, 9 June 2013

The Canadian Grand Prix: Post-Qualifying Tips

"Of course I am happy but there are no points given in qualifying." ...Valtteri Bottas 

At the Monaco Grand Prix, it was my longer priced pre-qualifying tips which performed strongly with a return of 326 points from an initial 100 points.  However, my shorter priced post-qualifying tips still did reasonably okay making a slight profit of 26 points, so I'll see how I get on this time out.

Due to the possibility of a wet race, in general I've stayed away from heavy favourites when making these predictions, but if we get a dry race then that may prove to be an unwise strategy, so it's probably advisable to wait until closer to the Grand Prix and then assessing the weather before deciding on your bets.

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
20 points on Nico Rosberg at 4.5 (William Hill)
Earlier in the season Mercedes went through a pattern of falling away during the races, but they seemed to have made improvements in that respect at Monaco, and the cooler temperatures may also help them to stretch the life of their tyres.  If that proves to be the case then odds of 4.5 for a Nico Rosberg podium seem quite tempting given that he starts from 4th.

Double Points Finish:
10 points on McLaren at 3.5 (PaddyPower)
McLaren are having a poor season by their own high standards, but despite this they've still managed a double points finish at two of the last three Grand Prix.

Top Ten Finish:
20 points on Paul Di Resta 2.29 (PaddyPower)
Paul has made the points on five out of six occasions this season and although qualifying didn't go well for him, he showed at Monaco (where he also qualified 17th) that he's more than capable of making up places during the race.  Circuit Gilles Villeneuve is a track which gives the drivers opportunities for overtaking, so grid position isn't quite as important and from 17th on the grid Paul is still in with a decent shot of a points scoring position.

Number of Lap 1 Retirements:
20 points on 'Lap 1 Retirements - Nil' at 1.61 (PaddyPower)
2013 has been the season of the safe getaway with very few lap 1 incidents, so 'No lap 1 retirements' has definitely been the bet to go for in this betting market.

Winning Margin:
30 points on Under 6 Seconds at 2.0 (SkyBet)
The average winning margin this season has been 8.15 seconds so I'm going slightly against the 2013 trend with this one, but Canada is a Grand Prix which tends to produce close finishes and in fact each of the last three Canadian Grand Prix have seen a winning margin of under 3 seconds.

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Taking A Risk/Longer Priced Bets:

Highest Scoring Team:
20 points on Mercedes at 4.5 (Ladbrokes)
The cooler temperatures may go against teams like Lotus and Ferrari who are generally gentle on their tyres and may instead suit teams like Red Bull and also Mercedes who tend to eat through their tyres more aggressively in hotter temperatures.  Red Bull are the odds on favourites so there looks to be a shade more value in the price available for Mercedes to be the highest scoring team.

Top Six Finish: 
20 points on Valtteri Bottas at 3.75 (Ladbrokes, Bet365, William Hill)
If we get a dry race then you'd expect Valtteri to fall back down the order fairly quickly, as his impressive qualifying performance means that he's definitely qualified out of position wth respect to dry weather pace, so this bet is dependant on the weather more than most.

However, Valtteri Bottas has been doing a solid job all season and has now out-qualified team-mate Pastor Maldonado for four consecutive Grand Prix.  He's also made up places during the race at all but the Spanish Grand Prix (where he maintained his 16th position).  Obviously starting from 3rd he's going to have his work cut out to continue that record, but if we get slippery conditions then we may see some surprises in the top six finishing order.

Not To Be Classified:
20 points on Felipe Massa at 5.0 (PaddyPower)
As I mentioned in my pre-qualifying tips, in the last five years Canada has seen 4, 6, 5, 7 and 10 drivers not classified, so the 'Not To Be Classified' market is definitely worth a look.  Due to a combination of driver error and car problems, Felipe Massa seems to have been a bit accident prone recently so he's maybe one bet worth considering in this market, especially if we get a wet race.

Finishing Position:
10 points on Sebastian Vettel to finish 3rd or 4th at 8.0 (SkyBet)
Sebastian Vettel is the heavily fancied odds on favourite with the bookies, but in a season like the one we're having where qualifying pace doesn't always translate to consistent race pace, and at a track like Canada where the driver on pole has only won once in the last four Grand Prix to be staged here, and where the possibility of wet weather adds to the prospect of an unpredictable race, there are just too many variables to tempt me into backing Vettel for the victory at such a short price.  I'm therefore going to risk a longer priced punt on him to repeat his 2012 performance where he again started on pole but ultimately finished fourth.

Match Bets:
10 point accumulator on:  (Bet365)
Jenson Button V Sergio Perez - Jenson Button at 1.83
Charles Pic V Giedo Van Der Garde - Charles Pic at 1.4
Jules Bianchi V Max Chilton - Jules Bianchi at 1.33

Winning Margin:
20 points on Under 3 Seconds at 3.75 (Bet365)
As already mentioned each of the last three Canadian Grand Prix have seen a winning margin of under 3 seconds and while there's no guarantee that this trend will continue, there is sometimes a tendency for cars to get sucked into the 'Wall Of Champions' which inevitably means a safety car period, which in turn bunches the field up.  I'm therefore going to follow up my original 'Winning Margin - Under 6 Seconds' bet with a small bet on an even tighter finish due to the tempting odds available.


As already mentioned, with the possibility of a wet race there's a greater than usual risk when betting on formula 1, so I would once again advise waiting until closer to the start of the Grand Prix and assessing the weather before making a final decision on any bets.

As usual I'll report back next week on how things turned out.

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Other recent posts:
The Canadian Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips
Canadian Grand Prix - The Top Bets By The Form Guide
The Form Guide After Monaco: Part 3 - Top Six Finish
Monaco Grand Prix: Tips Round-Up
Monaco Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds

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