Tuesday, 4 June 2013

Canadian Grand Prix - The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Before each Grand Prix I make a set of pre and post qualifying tips and then compare which set of tips perform best.  For recent races, I've also analysed the performance of the drivers during 2013 to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.

You can see the detailed results in my previous posts, but to summarise, based on the statistics from the first six Grand Prix of the season, as we head to Canada the best bets so far have been...

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver - Kimi Raikkonen (50% profit / £9 return from £6 staked)
Podium Finish - Romain Grosjean (100% profit / £12 return from £6 staked)
Top Six Finish - Lewis Hamilton (25.3% profit / £7.52 return from £6 staked)
Top Ten Finish - Paul Di Resta (41% profit / £8.46 return from £6 staked)

N.B. The above figures are based on the return you would have received if you placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix of the season based on the odds when the market first opened, i.e. before practise and qualifying.

Safest Bets:

Winning Driver - Fernando Alonso (33.3% success rate)
Podium Finish - Kimi Raikkonen (66.7% success rate)
Top Six Finish - Sebastian Vettel (100% success rate)
Top Ten Finish - Kimi Raikkonen (100% success rate)

N.B. When two or more drivers have achieved an equal success rate, I have listed the driver who would have returned the biggest profit.

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Of course more recent Grand Prix such as Monaco and Barcelona may have more relevance to the bookies odds for Canada than the results in Melbourne and Sepang, so the above statistics are intended as no more than a basic analysis of the season so far.  You also have to consider that each circuit has its own characteristics, some of which suit certain teams and drivers more than others, so as usual I'll be making a set of predictions before and after qualifying and then comparing how I get on against the form guide.

The complete 'Betting Profit' statistics showing every driver's return for various formula 1 betting markets can be found at the following links:
The Form Guide After Monaco: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The Form Guide After Monaco: Part 2 - Podium Finish
The Form Guide After Monaco: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

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