Thursday, 20 June 2013

The British Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last few days I've analysed the top formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver and Podum Finish markets and today it's the turn of the Top Six betting market.  Once again I've compiled two 'Betting Profit' charts; the first based on the entire 2013 season and the second weighted in favour of recent results.

The first chart shows the profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at each Grand Prix throughout 2013 for a top six finish...

Standard 'Betting Profit' Chart For A Top Six Finish:

Top 6 Finish Profit* Winning Bet
Jean-Eric Vergne 10.00 1
Lewis Hamilton 1.85 6
Sebastian Vettel 1.80 7
Mark Webber 1.11 5
Felipe Massa 0.26 4
Nico Rosberg 0.18 4
Romain Grosjean -1.37 2
Kimi Raikkonen -1.70 4
Fernando Alonso -1.96 4
Sergio Perez -2.00 1
Jenson Button -2.42 2
Paul Di Resta -3.25 1
Adrian Sutil -4.25 1
Rest Of The Field-7.000

Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.

Thanks to his odds of 17.0, Jean-Eric Vergne's excellent drive at Canada means that he jumps straight in as the most profitable top six bet of 2013.  Toro Rosso are a team who look to have made improvements this year, and they showed glimpses of their potential at China when Daniel Ricciardo finished 7th, so they're worth keeping an eye on, although you suspect that their odds may come down slightly at future Grand Prix.

If you're looking for a safe bet, however, rather than generous returns, then Sebastian Vettel remains the safest bet in this market having finished in the top six at every race of the season.  Lewis Hamilton isn't far behind with 6 top six finishes from seven races and the Spanish Grand Prix being the only race where he missed out on a top six finish.

Ferrari Store Spring/Summer 2013

The second chart is weighted in favour of more recent races and for the benefit of anyone new to F1 Tips blog, I've applied the following multipliers for each Grand Prix; Malaysia 16.7%, China 33.3%, Bahrain 50%, Spain 66.7%, Monaco 83.3% and for Canada 100%:

Top 6 FinishProfit
Jean-Eric Vergne13.50
Sebastian Vettel0.91
Nico Rosberg0.88
Mark Webber0.81
Lewis Hamilton0.53
Jenson Button-0.78
Sergio Perez-1.00
Fernando Alonso-1.06
Adrian Sutil-1.21
Romain Grosjean-1.60
Kimi Raikkonen-1.62
Paul Di Resta-1.63
Felipe Massa-1.67
Rest Of The Field-3.50

Not surprisingly, Jean-Eric Vergne remains at the top of the chart, with the Red Bull and Mercedes drivers being the drivers to go for if you're after less risk at the cost of lower returns.

Next up is the Top Ten betting market and I'll be covering that in the next few days.

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Other recent posts:
The British Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The British Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Canadian Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds
Canada Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds
What Are The Most Popular Worldwide Sports Based On Google Searches?


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