Wednesday, 4 September 2013

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Today I'm going to round-off my analysis of the formula 1 form guide by covering a selection of miscellaneous betting markets such as fastest lap, fastest qualifier, etc.

The following form guide charts charts are based on the last six races and as usual I've weighted things in favour of recent results by applying the following multipliers for each Grand Prix: Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%, Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.

Fastest Lap:

First up, here's the form guide for the fastest lap:

Fastest LapProfit*Winning Bet
Mark Webber 10.333
Fernando Alonso3.171
Sebastian Vettel0.672
Rest Of The Field-3.500

Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

Mark Webber couldn't keep his run of fastest laps going at Spa, but overall he still remains the most profitable fastest lap bet in recent races.

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Fastest Qualifier:

Next up is the form guide for 'Pole Position', which some bookies refer to as 'Fastest Q3 Qualifying Time':

Fastest QualifierProfitWinning Bet
Lewis Hamilton5.464
Sebastian Vettel-2.331
Nico Rosberg-2.831
Rest Of The Field-3.500

No surprises here with Lewis Hamilton now having achieved four pole positions on the trot and as we head to Monza he would once again appear to be the logical bet to go for.

Winning Margin:

Most bookies also offer a market on the Winning Margin of each Grand Prix and at SkyBet they go with 6 seconds as the dividing line:

Winning MarginProfitWinning Bet
6 Seconds Or More0.273
Under 6 Seconds-0.913

The average winning margin over the course of the season stands at 8.43 seconds, with the average winning margin over the last six races being 7.93 seconds, so this remains a tricky market to predict.


Safety Car:

This is the current statistics for Safety Car betting:

Safety CarProfitWinning Bet

Over the course of the season the safety car has only been called into action at three from eleven Grand Prix, but of course if you fancy a bet on the safety car then you also have to consider other factors such as the weather and characteristics of certain tracks.

Winning Team:

Finally, here's the current form guide for Winning Team:

Winning TeamProfitWinning Bet
Red Bull1.253
Rest Of The Field-3.500

As you can see at recent Grand Prix it's been a two horse race in the Winning Team market, although Ferrari did look to have made up some of the ground judging by Alonso's performance at Spa.

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Other recent posts:
The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish
The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish
The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish
Belgian Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds

SkyBet are currently offering a completely free £10 bet for any new customer who signs up for a new SkyBet account, so if you fancy a free bet on the Italian Grand Prix then check out the link below:

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