Tuesday, 3 September 2013

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last few days I've analysed which drivers have been the best bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets.

Today I move onto the Top Ten Finish market and as usual I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent form and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

The recent form chart is as follows:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Ten Finish (Current Form):

Top 10 Finish Profit* Winning Bet
Nico Hulkenberg 1.38 2
Jenson Button 0.73 4
Pastor Maldonado 0.67 1
Mark Webber 0.67 6
Lewis Hamilton 0.62 6
Fernando Alonso 0.54 6
Daniel Ricciardo 0.50 2
Adrian Sutil 0.19 4
Felipe Massa 0.07 4
Romain Grosjean -0.03 3
Sebastian Vettel -0.07 5
Nico Rosberg -0.21 5
Sergio Perez -0.48 2
Kimi Raikkonen -0.60 5
Jean-Eric Vergne -2.04 2
Paul Di Resta -2.15 3
Rest Of The Field -3.50 0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%, Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.

The chart shows that there are two approaches you can take to making a profit.  Webber, Hamilton and Alonso have all returned a small but consistent profit at each of the last six races, while thaks to their longer odds the likes of Nico Hulkenberg and Daniel Ricciardo have also made a profit, despite finishing in the points on only two occasions at the last six Grand prix.  Neither strategy has produced massive profits, but if you're patient and in it for the long haul, then over the course of a season there's the possibility to make a reasonable return in the long term.

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Here's the chart for the entire season:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Ten Finish (Entire Season):

Top 10 Finish Profit* Winning Bet
Nico Hulkenberg 1.83 4
Mark Webber 1.09 10
Lewis Hamilton 1.02 10
Kimi Raikkonen 0.73 10
Fernando Alonso 0.63 10
Sebastian Vettel 0.54 10
Jenson Button 0.54 8
Daniel Ricciardo 0.25 4
Paul di Resta 0.15 7
Jean-Eric Vergne -0.50 3
Felipe Massa -0.55 8
Nico Rosberg -0.92 8
Romain Grosjean -1.13 7
Sergio Perez -1.67 5
Adrian Sutil -1.99 5
Pastor Maldonado -6.00 1
Rest Of The Field -11.00 0

* As a reminder, the 'Profit' column shows the amount of profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix this season.  Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

Kimi Raikkonen's retirement from the Belgian Grand Prix meant that he lost his record as the only driver to have finished in the points at every race of the season, but he nevertheless still remains a profitable bet over the course of the season.  In fact it's interesting to note that of the current top five drivers in the formula 1 driver's championship, all have returned a profit over the course of the season in the Top Ten Finish betting market.

However, Nico Hulkenberg has still been the most profitable Top Ten bet, showing that provided you're prepared to accept a number of losses along the way, backing an occasional points scorer can potentially prove to be a more profitable long term strategy than going for one of the favourites.

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Other recent posts:
The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish
The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish
Belgian Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds


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