Hungarian Grand Prix: Round-Up

"If we can be quick here in a race with these track temperatures, then I'm very hopeful that we can be competitive everywhere else."  ...Lewis Hamilton

After qualifying Lewis Hamilton was declaring that it would be a miracle if he won the race, which just shows that you should never pay much attention to what drivers say!  Tyres never looked to be an issue at all, which is an encouraging sign for Mercedes as we head into the second half of the season.

When it came to my tips, it was a case of too many near misses costing me on too many occasions.  As previously mentioned, I'm going to be keeping a running tally of how my tips perform, so here's the report on how things turned out...

Pre Qualifying Tips

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.0 (SkyBet) - LOSS
Around about lap 20, Alonso's 'bet in play' odds to win the race came down to 9.0 and he was looking in the mix for a podium.   However, by the midway stage of the race it was clear that Alonso was losing ground and he eventually finished in 5th position, 19 seconds behind Vettel's podium time.

Qualifying Match Bets:
10 point accumulator on:  (Bet365) - WIN 19 points
Lewis Hamilton V Nico Rosberg - Lewis Hamilton at 1.57
Sebastian Vettel V Mark Webber - Sebastian Vettel at 1.2

The Hungarian Grand Prix: Hungaroring Post-Qualifying Tips

"We've got a steep hill to climb with these tyres and if we did win it would be a miracle." ...Lewis Hamilton

Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Hungarian Grand Prix and now that the starting grid has been decided I'm going to follow things up with another set of predictions .

Also, starting from the Hungarian Grand Prix I'm going to carry my profit/loss forward in each category of bets (pre and post qualifying/shorter and longer priced bets) to make it easier to track how each category of bets performs.  This should make it easier to compare the relative risks of sticking with the favourites versus going for a few long shots and also to decide whether it's wiser to place your bets before or after qualifying.

Anyway, here are my post-qualifying tips for the Hungarian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Top Ten Finish:
10 points on Nico Hulkenberg at 2.75 (Bet Fred)
Nico Hulkenberg has done reasonably okay on his two previous visits to the Hungaroring (6th in 2010 and 11th in 2012) and he's also currently the most profitable Top Ten bet based on the recent form guide, so I'm going to go for a small punt on that form to continue with another points scoring finish.

Lap 1 Retirements:
20 points on Lap 1 Retrements - Nil at 1.5 (SkyBet, Paddy Power)
This has been the most consistant bet of the season and if you'd bet £1 on No Lap 1 Retirements at every Grand Prix then you'd currently be £5.48 in profit.

The Hungarian Grand Prix: Hungaroring Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Hungarian Grand Prix

For previous Grand Prix I've given myself 100 points and then made a selection of pre and post qualifying tips split between shorter and longer priced bets.

However, starting from the Hungarian Grand Prix I'm going to carry my profit/loss forward in each category for every Grand Prix to make it easier to track how each category of bets performs.  This should make it easier to decide whether it's better to place your bets before or after qualifying and also make it easier to compare the relative risks of sticking with the favourites versus going for a few long shots.

If I'd followed this format since the Spanish Grand Prix (when I first started splitting my tips into shorter priced and longer priced bets), then my Post-Qualifying Shorter Priced Tips would currently be on a total of 204 points, i.e. a cumulative profit of 104 points.  My Post-Qualifying Longer Priced Tips and Pre-Qualifying Shorter Priced tips on the other hand would both be completely wiped out, suggesting a punt on relatively low-risk bets after qualifying is maybe the safest strategy to follow.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Hungarian Grand Prix and I'll see how I get on...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.0 (SkyBet)
Red Bull have grabbed the headlines with a one two in both P1 and P2, and Vettel has reportedly also had the fastest long run pace, but at such short odds he doesn't hold much appeal.  There hasn't been that much in it at the front with the Lotus and Ferrari drivers in the mix behind Red Bull, and in P2 Fernando was less than two tenths of a second behind Vettel.  Alonso also tends to make up places during the race, so if he gets a decent qualifying position then he looks to be a decent podium bet.

Hungarian Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last week or so I've analysed recent results to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  The 'Betting Profit' charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the best bets in various categories, I've listed the top bets below.  Just to clarify, the results are based on the six most recent Grand Prix and to ensure the statistics have more relevance to recent form, I've weighted the results in favour of recent races using the following multipliers; Bahrain 16.7%, Spain 33.3%, Monaco 50%, Canada 66.7%, Britain 83.3% and Germany 100%:

Anyway, as we head to the Hungaroring the best bets in recent Grand Prix have been...

The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As usual I'm going to round-off my review of the form guide by taking a look at a selection of miscellaneous formula 1 betting markets such as fastest lap, fastest qualifier, etc.

The following form guide charts charts are based on the last six races and I've weighted things in favour of recent results by applying the following multipliers for each Grand Prix: Bahrain 16.7%, Spain 33.3%, Monaco 50%, Canada 66.7%, Britain 83.3% and Germany 100%.

Fastest Lap:

First of all, here's the 'Betting Profit' chart for the fastest lap:

The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last few days I've analysed which drivers have been the best formula 1 bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets.

Today I report on the Top Ten Finish market and as usual I've produced two charts; the first based on the entire 2013 season and the second weighted in favour of recent form.

For the benefit of anyone new to F1 Tips Blog, the first chart shows the profit you would have made if you'd bet £1 on the same driver to finish in the points at every Grand Prix of the year:

Top 10 Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Nico Hulkenberg	3.83	4
Paul Di Resta	2.15	7
Kimi Raikkonen	1.59	9
Jean-Eric Vergne	1.50	3
Mark Webber	0.69	8
Lewis Hamilton	0.68	8
Fernando Alonso	0.32	8
Sebastian Vettel	0.26	8
Nico Rosberg	-0.17	7
Daniel Ricciardo	-0.50	3
Jenson Button	-0.53	6
Felipe Massa	-1.24	6
Sergio Perez	-1.50	4
Romain Grosjean	-1.82	5
Adrian Sutil	-2.19	4
Rest Of The Field	-9.00	0

* Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.

The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last couple of days I've analysed the top formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver and Podum Finish betting markets and today it's the turn of the Top Six betting market.  Once again I've compiled two 'Betting Profit' charts; the first based on the entire 2013 season and the second weighted in favour of recent results.

The first chart shows the profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at each Grand Prix throughout 2013 for a top six finish...

Standard 'Betting Profit' Chart For A Top Six Finish:

Top 6 Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Jean-Eric Vergne	8.00	1
Lewis Hamilton	2.41	8
Sebastian Vettel	1.00	8
Jenson Button	0.58	3
Mark Webber	0.44	6
Felipe Massa	-0.01	5
Nico Rosberg	-0.29	5
Romain Grosjean	-0.62	3
Kimi Raikkonen	-0.76	6
Fernando Alonso	-1.51	6
Sergio Perez	-4.00	1
Paul Di Resta	-5.25	1
Adrian Sutil	-6.25	1

Rest Of The Field

-9.00

0

*  Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.

The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Yesterday I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets so far this season in the Winning Driver market and today I'm going to look at the Podium Finish betting market.

Once again I've produced two charts; the first based on the entire 2013 season and the second weighted in favour of the form in recent Grand Prix.

For the benefit of anyone new to F1 Tips blog, the first chart shows the profit you'd have made from a £1 bet if you'd backed the same driver for a podium at each Grand Prix of 2013...

The Hungarian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Following the German Grand Prix, I've analysed the statistics to produce the latest 'Betting Profit' charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the 'Winning Driver' betting market and over the next few days I'll also be analysing a few other betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

As usual I've produced two form charts; the first based on the entire 2013 season and the second weighted in favour of recent races.

For the benefit of anyone new to F1 Tips blog, the first chart shows the usual 'Betting Profit' returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each Grand Prix so far this season...

German Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the leading contenders during the German Grand Prix

The German Grand Prix gave us an exciting battle between Sebastian Vettel and the Lotus drivers, and, with the exception of Vettel, the odds of the leading contenders saw quite a bit of movement during the race, with six drivers priced at less than 20/1 at one time or another during the Grand Prix.

This is the chart which shows the bet in play odds throughout the race:

German Grand Prix: Round-Up

"I’m happy the race wasn’t two or three laps longer, as Kimi was a bit quicker towards the end." ...Sebastian Vettel

After a season which has seen the majority of Grand Prix won by reasonably comfortable margins, the Nurburgring provided the closest finish yet, with the top four separated by less than eight seconds at the chequered flag.  As late as lap 47 SkyBet were still offering odds of 1.67 on a winning margin of Under 6.5 Seconds so that's one 'bet in play' market worth keeping an eye on at future Grand Prix.

My longer priced post-qualifying tips managed to sneak the narrowest of profits thanks to my accumulator, but other than that in my other bets it was a case of too many near misses, with Fernando Alonso for a podium, Paul di Resta to finish in the points, and Mark Webber to qualify on the front row all missing out by a single place.  For the Hungarian Grand Prix in three weeks' time, I may therefore try a new format for the blog, but in the mean time here's a brief summary of how I got on...

Post-Qualifying:

Taking A Risk/Longer Priced Bets:

My eachway bet on Mark Webber was doomed after Mark's first pitstop, but as Christian Horner says, "The most important thing today is that the cameraman who got struck by the tyre does not appear to have suffered any life threatening injuries."  As already mentioned, my accumulator bet was a winning bet thanks to Paul di Resta, Jenson Button and Kimi Raikkonen all finishing ahead of their team-mates...

Match Bets:
30 point accumulator on:  WIN - 101 points
Paul di Resta V Adrian Sutil - Paul di Resta at 1.62
Jenson Button V Sergio Perez - Jenson Button at 1.57
Kimi Raikkonen V Romain Grosjean - Kimi Raikkonen at 1.33

The German Grand Prix: Nurburgring Post-Qualifying Tips

"It's a little bit of an understatement to say that we have mixed emotions after qualifying." ...Ross Brawn

Once again it was a battle between Mercedes and Red Bull for pole, but the higher temperatures seemed to suit Lotus and Ferrari who weren't too far off the pace and overall things looks well balanced for an exciting race.

Fernando Alonso commented, "It is about the pace tomorrow - not the tyres or the strategy," but if we get a few cars closely matched for pace then strategy could still be the deciding factor.  I personally think Ferrari's strategy of qualifying on the medium tyres could prove to be a shrewd move, but it remains to be seen just how things will play out.

Here are my post-qualifying tips for the German Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
20 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.5 (BetFred)
Ferrari took a bit of a gamble in qualifying by running medium tyres in Q3 and as a result they qualified 7th and 8th.  However, grid position isn't as crucial in modern formula 1 as it was in years gone by and you don't win any points on a Saturday, so it may ultimately prove to be a wise decision by Ferrari to focus on the race.  Alonso goes into this race with three podiums from the last four Grand Prix and on each of those occasions he started 5th, 6th and 9th and has proven to be a driver who consistently makes up places during the races.

The German Grand Prix: Nurburgring Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The German Grand Prix

Yesterday I listed some of the most profitable formula 1 bets of the 2013 season, and also the safest bets, in various formula 1 betting markets.  Today I'm going to see how I get on against the form guide by making a set of pre-qualifying tips and then follow this up on Saturday evening with a set of post-qualifying tips.

As usual I'm going to split my tips into a selection of shorter priced bets and also a selection of longer priced more risky bets.

Since I started splitting my tips I've had mixed fortunes, with decent returns at Spain and Monaco but poor results at Canada and Silverstone.  If you prefer to pay more attention to the form guide than my own predictions (which may be wise on current form!) then you can find the formula 1 betting form guide at the following link:
German Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Anyway, here are my predictions for the German Grand Prix... 

Shorter Priced Bets:

Qualify On Front Row:
20 points on Lewis Hamilton at 1.44 (SkyBet)
Given that Lewis has qualified on the front row for the last four Grand Prix now, you can understand why the bookies price him so short.  Mercedes team-mate Nico Rosberg is priced similarly short (at odds of 1.53) and with four front row finishes from the last five qualifying sessions he's also worth considering, but Lewis is the driver I'm going for.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
20 points on 0.15 Seconds Or More at 1.67 (SkyBet)
It's fairly competitive at the front of the field between Mercedes and Red Bull right now, but the average qualifying winning margin in 2013 has been 0.39 and only two qualifying sessions this season have seen a front row separated by less than 0.15 seconds.

German Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As there's only one week between the British and German Grand Prix, I haven't had a chance to provide the usual detailed driver by driver analysis of each formula 1 betting market, so instead I'm just going to post an overall summary showing details of the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.

Based on the statistics from the first eight Grand Prix of the season, as we head to the Nurburgring the best bets so far have been...

British Grand Prix: Round-Up

"What a day! I don't think any of us expected it to unfold like this." ...Mark Webber

The British Grand Prix provided dramatic and sometimes spectacular viewing, but not always for the right reasons.  The tyre failures have been well documented but let's not take anything away from some of the brilliant drives we saw from too many drivers to list.  It was a race which gave us excitement and great racing, particularly in the closing laps, so although urgent action is needed to sort out the tyre situation, there still remains a lot to be positive about in current formula 1.

For the second race running my tips had a bad day at the office with the Sebastian Vettel's gearbox problems and Lewis Hamilton's tyre failure causing me a couple of losses and also having a knock on effect with other bets such as Highest Scoring Team and Safety Car.

Also for the second race running, my longer priced riskier bets were especially poor with my eachway bet on Mark Webber being the only bet to make a profit (with an eachway return of 26 points).  This is how my shorter priced bets got on:

Pre-Qualifying - Shorter Priced Bets:

Qualify On Front Row:
20 points on Lewis Hamilton at 1.8 - WIN 36 points
Lewis hadn't been happy with his car all throughout practise but when it actually mattered in Q3 he was able to produce a stunning qualifying lap to claim his second pole position of the season.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
20 points on Under 0.25 Seconds at 1.53 - LOSS
Lewis Hamilton's phenomenal qualifying lap meant that he qualified on pole by a clear 0.452 of a second ahead of Nico Rosberg.