The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

In the run-up to Monza, I've analysed the recent results to produce the latest form guide charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the 'Winning Driver' betting market and over the next few days I'll also be covering a few other betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

As usual I've produced two form charts; the first based on the last six races and weighted in favour of recent results, and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver (Current Form):

Winning Driver	Profit*	Winning Bet
Nico Rosberg	3.17	2
Lewis Hamilton	2.75	1
Sebastian Vettel	2.42	3
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%, Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.

Belgian Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the top drivers during qualifying at Spa.

The Belgian Grand Prix was far from beng a classic, but qualifying provided dramatic entertainment right up to the final seconds.

So to tell the story of qualifying from a betting point of view, I've recorded the 'bet in play' odds for the shortest priced drivers and then used the figures to produce the chart below.  Just to clarify, the graph is based on the odds for each driver to get pole position, not to win the actual Grand Prix.

The Bet In Play odds for qualifying at the Belgian Grand Prix.

Belgian Grand Prix: Round-Up

"It is still open.  We just need to keep trying to improve our performance and try to turn it around." ...Fernando Alonso

Unfortunately, this year's Belgian Grand Prix was far from being a classic and couldn't come anywhere near to reproducing the excitement of qualifying.  Sebastian Vettel quickly strolled into a comfortable lead and then controlled the race from there on in, so hopefuly Monza in a couple of weeks' time will produce better racing.

Overall, it was also a disappointing weekend for my tips as several of my bets were undone by the weather.  A few still came up though, so this is the round-up of how I got on...

Post-Qualifying Tips

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 3.0 (Ladbrokes, Coral, BetFred) - WIN 30 points
Alonso was up to 5th place by the end of the first lap and then made his way up through the field very quickly, so by a very early stage in the race he was already looking good for the podium.

The Belgian Grand Prix: Spa Post-Qualifying Tips

"In these conditions, it's more of a lottery and the driver can make more of a difference. " ...Lewis Hamilton

Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Belgian Grand Prix and now that the starting grid has been decided I'm going to follow things up with another set of predictions.

I've pretty much banked on a wet race with several of these tips, but I reckon the wisest strategy is probably to check the weather predictions closer to the start of the race before placing your formula 1 bets.

Anyway, here are my post-qualifying tips for the Belgian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 3.0 (Ladbrokes, Coral, BetFred)
Alonso was unlucky with the timing of the rain in Q3 and as a result ended up 9th on the grid, but he had the pace in Q1 and Q2, and he seems confident for his chances in the race.  Track position isn't as vital at Spa as at certain other tracks, especially if we get a wet race, so although Fernando's podium consistency hasn't been quite as strong this year as it was in 2012, odds of 3.0 are enough to tempt me into a small bet on Alonso to make up places during the race and finish on the podium.

The Belgian Grand Prix: Spa Pre-Qualifying Tips

"We have got closer to the favourites, but I'm not sure which weather forecast I would prefer!" ...Fernando Alonso

Last time out at Hungary my pre-qualifying tips managed to sneak a narrow profit which means my current points totals stand at 106 points for my Shorter Priced Bets and 103 points for my riskier Longer Priced Bets.

Anyone betting on the Belgian Grand Prix should bear in mind that the weather forecast is predicting the probability of a wet race, which inevitably brings with it an element of unpredictability.  It may therefore be wise to stay away from short favourites, or at least wait until closer to the start of the Grand Prix before analysing the odds and placing your bets.

As usual though, I'll make my predictions and see how I go...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium:
10 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 2.15 (Sporting Bet)
Kimi was on the podium at Germany and Hungary, so he seems to be in solid form at the moment (which should help his agent with his contract negotiations for next season!).  Kimi was also on the podium at Spa last year and won on his previous visit here before that (in 2009), so Spa seems to be a track which suits him.

Belgian Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last week or so I've analysed recent results to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  The form guide charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the best bets in various categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, below...

The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Today I'm going to round-off my review of the form guide by taking a look at a selection of miscellaneous formula 1 betting markets such as fastest lap, fastest qualifier, etc.

The following form guide charts charts are based on the last six races and as usual I've weighted things in favour of recent results by applying the following multipliers for each Grand Prix: Spain 16.7%, Monaco 33.3%, Canada 50%, Britain 66.7%, Germany 83.3% and Hungary 100%.

Fastest Lap:

First up, here's the form guide for the fastest lap:

Fastest Lap	Profit*	Winning Bet
Mark Webber	14.83	3
Esteban Gutierrez	13.33	1
Fernando Alonso	4.83	1
Sebastian Vettel	-2.17	1
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

*  Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last few days I've analysed which drivers have been the best formula 1 bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets.

Today I move onto the Top Ten Finish market and as usual I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent form and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

The recent form chart is as follows:

The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

In the run-up to Spa, I've so far analysed the top formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver and Podum Finish betting markets and today it's the turn of the Top Six betting market.

Once again I've compiled two 'Betting Profit' charts; the first weighted in favour of recent results and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Six Finish (Current Form):

Top 6 Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Jean-Eric Vergne	5.00	1
Jenson Button	1.46	2
Lewis Hamilton	0.91	5
Romain Grosjean	0.70	2
Fernando Alonso	0.39	5
Mark Webber	0.37	5
Kimi Raikkonen	0.31	4
Sebastian Vettel	-0.04	5
Nico Rosberg	-0.94	4
Felipe Massa	-2.09	2
Adrian Sutil	-2.58	1
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Spain 16.7%, Monaco 33.3%, Canada 50%, Britain 66.7%, Germany 83.3% and Hungary 100%.

The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Yesterday I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets so far this season in the Winning Driver market and today it's the turn of the Podium Finish betting market.

Once again I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent Grand Prix (to take into account the fact that recent form obviously has more relevance to forthcoming results) and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Current Form):

Podium Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Romain Grosjean	6.50	1
Kimi Raikkonen	1.70	3
Sebastian Vettel	0.31	4
Lewis Hamilton	-0.15	2
Nico Rosberg	-0.43	2

Mark Webber	-0.75	2
Fernando Alonso	-1.50	3

Felipe Massa

-2.67

1

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Spain 16.7%, Monaco 33.3%, Canada 50%, Britain 66.7%, Germany 83.3% and Hungary 100%.

The Belgian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

In the run-up to Spa, I've analysed the statistics to produce the latest form guide charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the 'Winning Driver' betting market and over the next few days I'll also be analysing a few other betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

As usual I've produced two form charts; the first weighted in favour of recent races (to take into account the fact that recent form obviously has more relevance to forthcoming results) and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver (Current Form):

Winning Driver	Profit*	Winning Bet
Nico Rosberg	6.17	2
Lewis Hamilton	4.00	1
Sebastian Vettel	0.78	2
Fernando Alonso	-2.88	1
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Spain 16.7%, Monaco 33.3%, Canada 50%, Britain 66.7%, Germany 83.3% and Hungary 100%.

Hungarian Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the leading contenders during the Hungarian Grand Prix

In the end it all seemed relatively straight forward for Lewis Hamilton, but for the first 17 laps of the race it was Sebastian Vettel (and very briefly Romain Grosjean) who were regarded as the favourites by the bookies.

This is the chart which shows the bet in play odds throughout the race:

Hungarian Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the top drivers during qualifying at the Hungaroring.

At Hungary throughout each qualifying session I recorded the 'bet in play' odds available from SkyBet for the shortest priced drivers and then used the figures to produce the chart below.  Just to clarify, the graph is based on the odds for each driver to get pole position, not to win the actual Grand Prix.