Formula 1 Betting By Numbers
Once again I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent Grand Prix and the second based on the entire 2013 season.
Here's the first form chart:
'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Current Form):
| Podium Finish | Profit* | Winning Bet |
| Romain Grosjean | 2.50 | 1 |
| Sebastian Vettel | 1.01 | 5 |
| Fernando Alonso | 0.49 | 4 |
| Mark Webber | 0.21 | 2 |
| Lewis Hamilton | -0.23 | 3 |
| Kimi Raikkonen | -0.42 | 2 |
| Nico Rosberg | -2.33 | 1 |
| Rest Of The Field | -3.50 | 0 |
* Profit weighted in favour of recent races. To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Canada 16.7%, Britain 33.3%, Germany 50%, Hungary 66.7%, Belgium 83.3% and Italy 100%.
Last season it was Fernando Alonso who was the most consistent podium bet with 13 podiums throughout 2012, but on current form Sebastian Vettel has just edged Alonso out as the safest driver to go for, with five podiums from the last six Grand Prix.
The second chart shows the 'Betting Profit' returns for the entire season...
'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Entire Season):
| Podium Finish | Profit* | Winning Bet |
| Romain Grosjean | 12.00 | 2 |
| Kimi Raikkonen | 1.92 | 6 |
| Sebastian Vettel | 1.26 | 9 |
| Lewis Hamilton | 0.14 | 5 |
| Mark Webber | 0.13 | 4 |
| Fernando Alonso | -0.23 | 7 |
| Nico Rosberg | -6.30 | 2 |
| Felipe Massa | -7.00 | 1 |
| Rest Of The Field | -12.00 | 0 |
* As a reminder, the 'Profit' column shows the amount of profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix this season. Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.
Four of the top five drivers in the championship would currently have earned you a profit (albeit a very slim profit in some cases), so in general the statistics would suggest that it's best to stick to the favourites when considering a podium bet. As mentioned previously, however, Romain Grosjean has been by far the best bet to go for if you're prepared to take more of a risk and looking for a longer priced punt.
. . . . . . . .
Over the next few days I'll be rounding up the formula 1 form guide charts for Top Six Finish, Top Ten Finish and Miscellaneous Bets.
Follow F1Tips on twitter:
@F1TipsBlog
Related posts:
The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish
The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish
The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets
Legal note: This post contains affiliate banner links.
No comments:
Post a Comment