The Form Guide After Monaco: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As usual I've analysed the statistics after the Monaco Grand Prix to produce the latest 'Betting Profit' charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.  My schedule over the next week means I won't be covering quite as many betting markets this time around, but I'll start things off today with the Winning Driver market.

However, obviously in formula 1 as in all sports, recent form has more relevance than the results earlier in the season, so this time out I've produced two charts.

The first chart shows the usual 'Betting Profit' returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each Grand Prix so far this season...

Monaco Qualifying: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the top drivers during Monaco qualifying.

At the Spanish Grand Prix I compiled a graph of how the bet in play odds changed during the Grand Prix, so this time out I decided to vary things slightly and monitor the bet in play odds during Monaco qualifying.

At various intervals throughout each qualifying session I recorded the odds available from SkyBet for the shortest priced drivers and then used the figures to produce the graph below.  Just to clarify, the graph is based on the odds for each driver to get pole position, not to win the actual Grand Prix.

Monaco Grand Prix: Tips Round-Up

"This is my home.  I've grown up here all my life and it's really special." ...Nico Rosberg

In the first few laps after the pitstops, Vettel's race engineer reported to Vettel on the radio that his tyres from the first stint had been marginal.  Rosberg's engineer on the other hand revealed that the tyres from his first stint had held up well (still at 60%), and while you never know how much of radio transmissions are intended for the driver and how much are for the benefit of rival teams, from that point on it looked like it was Rosberg's race.

At the Spanish Grand Prix my post-qualifying tips did pretty well with my 'Playing It Safe' tips returning 263 points from 100 points, and although my return wasn't quite as impressive this week, things nevertheless still went reasonably well with a return of 126 points.

However, my 'Longer Priced' pre-qualifying tips were the bets that really performed strongly this time out with an excellent return of 324 points from 100 points, which I have to admit was a lot better than I was expecting!  I suppose it shows that if you're going to go for a risky longer priced bet then before qualifying is the time to do it (especially at Monaco), as once the grid is decided then the bookies are obviously going to shorten the odds of any driver with a realistic chance of doing well, and longer priced bets worth considering are going to be harder to find.

This is the detailed report on how my tips got on starting with my 'Longer Priced' pre-qualifying tips...

The Monaco Grand Prix: Post-Qualifying Tips

"We know that race pace has been our weakness.  We'll have to wait until tomorrow to find out if this will be enough.” ...Nico Rosberg

After the end of P3, I was feeling reasonably satisfied with how my tips were looking.  However, the rain at the start of Q1 served as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of formula 1 and it looked initially like qualifying might potentially throw up a few surprises.

In the end though, it was more or less business as usual with Nico Rosberg claiming his third consecutive pole and team-mate Lewis Hamilton lining up behind him to make it another front row lock out for Mercedes.

Last time out at Spain it was my post qualifying tips which recorded the best performance so I'm under pressure to repeat that form...

Playing It Safe/Shorter Priced Bets:

Winning Driver:
20 points on Sebastian Vettel at 5.0 (Bet365 enhanced odds)
Each of the last four Monaco Grand Prix have been won by the driver who started on pole, so you can understand why the bookies have Nico Rosberg as the favourite.  However, Fernando Alonso showed at the Spanish Grand Prix that modern formula 1 doesn't necessarily follow the trend of the history books.  Monaco is a different matter again of course, but Sebastian Vettel was only a tenth of a second off Nico Rosberg's pole lap time so I'm therefore sticking with my pre-weekend prediction of Sebastian Vettel for the victory.

The Monaco Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Monaco Grand Prix

Yesterday I posted the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far in 2013 in four of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  As usual, as we approach Sunday's race I'm also going to make a set of pre and post qualifying tips for the Monaco Grand Prix and then see how I get on compared to the form guide.

Following the pattern I started for Spain, I'm going to start with a series of shorter priced bets and then follow this with a selection of higher priced risky bets.  Bear in mind also that last time out my post-qualifying tips resoundly outperformed my pre-qualifying tips, so it may be wiser to wait until the form of the teams becomes more apparent later in the weekend before placing any bets.

Also bear in mind that I'm making these tips before first practise, and practise at Monaco takes place a day earlier than usual on the Thursday, so the odds may well change once the bookies get a chance to analyse the practise times.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying predictions for the Monaco Grand Prix split into two categories...

Monaco Grand Prix - The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Before each Grand Prix I make a set of predictions before and after qualifying and then compare which set of tips perform best.  For the last two races, I've also analysed the performance of the drivers during 2013 to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.

You can check out more detailed results in some of my posts over the last week, but to summarise, based on the statistics from the first five Grand Prix of the season, the best bets so far have been...

The Form Guide After Spain: Part 4 - Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last few days I've analysed the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in the most popular formula 1 betting markets, and today I'm going to feature one final round-up covering a variety of bets such as fastest lap, fastest qualifier and a few other of the less popular formula 1 bets.

As you'll see, it's worth keeping an eye of some of the following betting markets as there are profits to be made...

Fastest Lap:

To start things off, here's the 'Betting Profit' chart for the fastest lap market:

The Form Guide After Spain: Part 3 - Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last few days I've analysed the formula 1 'Betting Profit' charts so far this season for the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets, and today it's the turn of the Top Ten Finish market.

For the benefit of anyone new to this blog, the following 'Betting Proft' chart shows the profit you would have made if you'd bet £1 on the same driver for a top ten finish at every Grand Prix during 2013:

The Form Guide After Spain: Part 2 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

In the build up to the Spanish Grand Prix, I went over the most profitable bets and the safest bets so far this season, and so as Monaco approaches I'm once again featuring a series of posts analysing the best bets so far this season in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.

Yesterday I posted the 'Betting Profit' charts for the Winning Driver and Podium Finish betting markets, which you can find at the following link:
The Form Guide After Spain - Part 1: Winning Driver / Podium Finish

Today it's the turn of the Top Six Finish betting market and for the benefit of anyone new to this blog, the following chart shows the profit you would have made if you'd bet £1 on the same driver for a top six finish at every Grand Prix during 2013:

The Form Guide After Spain: Part 1 - Winning Driver / Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

After Bahrain, to help me cope with the three week gap until Spain, I compiled a few charts which analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Once again in the build up to Monaco I've analysed the statistics to produce the latest 'Betting Profit' charts, starting first of all with the charts for the Winning Driver and Podium Finish markets.

Fernando Alonso's victory in front of his home crowd at Spain means we've still only had three winners so far this season...

Spanish Grand Prix: Bet In Play Odds

The bet in play odds for the top drivers during the Spanish Grand Prix.

Usually when I have a bet on formula 1, I generally prefer to wait until after qualifying as by this stage of the weekend the form of the various teams is starting to emerge and it's therefore possible to make a more educated guess as to how things will turn out.  It's quite rare therefore that I'll have a bet before qualifying and even rarer again that I'll ever bother with 'bet in play'.

However, just for a change, during the Spanish Grand Prix I monitored the 'bet in play' odds every few laps to see how the bookies resasessed their opinion of the potential winner as the Grand Prix progressed.  This is a graph of the odds:

Spanish Grand Prix: Barcelona Round-Up

"You feel the support from everyone and it helped." ...Fernando Alonso.

During the opening ten laps or so, the in-play betting had Vettel priced as the slight favourite over Alonso for victory at the Spanish Grand Prix.  However, once the strategies began to emerge it soon became clear that Alonso had the edge, and in fact in the end it proved to a reasonably comfortable victory for Fernando, with Vettel eventually slipping back to 4th place, and Kimi Raikkonen proving to be Alonso's closest challenger.

Before the race I split my tips into two categories, 'Playing It Safe/Shorter Priced Bets' and 'Taking A Risk/Longer Priced Bets', and on the basis of Spain the results would suggest that it's wiser to stay away from the long-shots and stick to drivers from the group of favourites.  Five of my six 'Playing It Safe' tips were winning bets, recording an overall return of 263 points from a 100 point initial outlay.

Here's the detailed report on how my tips got on...

Post-Qualifying Tips:

Playing It Safe/Shorter Priced Bets:

Race Winner:
20 points on Fernando Alonso at 5.0 - WIN 100 points
The Circuit de Catalunya had never previously hosted a Grand Prix where the winner had started from fifth on the grid, but modern formula 1 with its DRS, KERS and 'racey' tyres allowed Fernando Alonso's brilliance to earn the victory that the home fans were hoping for.

Podium:
10 points on Kimi Raikkonen at 1.57 - WIN 16 points
Kimi continued his impressive consistent run of form to record his fourth podium of the season.

The Spanish Grand Prix: Barcelona Post Qualifying Tips

"The car on one lap pace is not as quick as the others, but on long run pace it's as quick as the others, or even better." ...Fernando Alonso

At one stage during Q1, Nico Rosberg was as long as 18/1 to get pole.  Even after Hamilton's excellent late Q2 lap showed that Mercedes once again had impressive qualifying pace, Rosberg was still priced quite generously.

However, despite their dominant qualifying performance it remains to be seen whether Mercedes have yet got on top of their tyre management issues.  During practise, Nico Rosberg showed improved long run consistency, but the improvement may not be enough for Mercedes to yet match the race pace of Red Bull, Ferrari and Lotus.  Despite starting from the front row of the grid, the bookies therefore price Rosberg and Hamilton behind Vettel, Alonso and Raikkonen.

Once again I've grouped my post-qualifying predictions for the Spanish Grand Prix into two categories based on the element of risk attached.  However, of course there's no such thing as a 'safe' bet so the amount of risk is purely relative...

The Spanish Grand Prix: Barcelona Pre-Qualifying Tips

Formula 1 Tips For The Spanish Grand Prix

Yesterday I rounded up the most profitable bets and also the safest bets so far this season in four of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  Formula 1 wouldn't be as fun if you reduced it to nothing more than a list of statistics though, so as usual I'm going to be making a set of pre and post qualifying tips for the Spanish Grand Prix and then see how I get on compared to the form guide.

To do things slightly different this time out, first of all I'm going to highlight my favourite 'safe' bets and then follow this with a selection of 'risky' bets.  Then as the season progresses I should be able to analyse whether it's generally better to go for short priced favourites or longer priced outsiders.  Obviously there's no such thing as a totally safe bet and all bets have an element of risk attached, so more appropriate names might perhaps be 'Shorter Priced Bets' and 'Longer Priced Bets'.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying predictions for the Spanish Grand Prix split into two categories...

Spanish Grand Prix - The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Before each Grand Prix I usually make a set of predictions before and after qualifying and then compare which set of tips perform best.  However, as we had a three week gap between Bahrain and Spain, I also decided to analyse the performance of the drivers so far this season to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular betting markets.

You can find the full results in my previous posts over the last week but to summarise, going on the statistics from the first four Grand Prix of the season, the best bets so far have been...

The Form Guide After Bahrain - Part 4: Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

During the three week gap between Bahrain and Spain I've analysed the results so far this season to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish, Top Six Finish and Top Ten Finish betting markets.

To round things off before we move onto Spain I've also produced some 'Betting Profit' charts for a few randomly selected formula 1 betting markets such as Fastest Lap, Fastest Qualifier, Winning Margin, plus a few others.

Fastest Lap:

To start things off, here's the 'Betting Profit' chart for the fastest lap market:

The Form Guide After Bahrain - Part 3: Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last week I've analysed which drivers have been the most proitable bets (and also the safest) so far this season in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets.

If you want to check out the results then you can find the full 'Betting Profit' charts for the various betting markets at the following links:

The Form Guide After Bahrain - Part 1: Winning Driver / Podium Finish
The Form Guide After Bahrain - Part 2: Top Six Finish

Today I move onto the Top Ten Finish market and for the benefit of anyone new to F1 Tips Blog, the following chart shows the profit you would have made if you'd bet £1 on the same driver to finish in the points at every Grand Prix so far this season:

The Form Guide After Bahrain - Part 2: Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

To help me cope with my formula 1 withdrawal symptoms during the three week gap between Bahrain and Spain, a few days ago I analysed the Winning Driver and Podium Finish betting markets to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets so far this season.

Not surprisingly, Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen have been two of the safest drivers to bet on so far, but if you want to see the full Winning Driver and Podium Finish betting profit charts then you can find them at the following link:

The Form Guide After Bahrain - Part 1: Winning Driver / Podium Finish

Today I move onto the Top Six betting market and just to explain once again, the following chart shows the profit you would have made if you'd bet £1 on the same driver for a top six finish at every Grand Prix: