The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

So far in the run-up to Korea, I've analysed the top formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver and Podum Finish betting markets and today I move on to the Top Six betting market.

As usual I've compiled two form guide charts; the first weighted in favour of recent results and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Six Finish (Current Form):

Top 6 Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Nico Hulkenberg	14.00	1
Felipe Massa	0.97	3
Fernando Alonso	0.80	6
Sebastian Vettel	0.45	5
Nico Rosberg	0.40	4
Jenson Button	-0.10	2
Lewis Hamilton	-0.15	5
Mark Webber	-0.53	4
Kimi Raikkonen	-0.76	4
Romain Grosjean	-1.63	2
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.

The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Yesterday I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver market and today I move onto the Podium Finish betting market.

As usual I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent Grand Prix and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Current Form):

Podium Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Sebastian Vettel	1.22	5
Kimi Raikkonen	1.17	3
Fernando Alonso	1.06	4
Romain Grosjean	0.50	1
Mark Webber	-0.68	2
Lewis Hamilton	-1.25	2
Nico Rosberg	-2.92	1
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.

The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

In the build-up to the Korean Grand Prix I've analysed the latest formula 1 results to produce various form guide charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the 'Winning Driver' betting market and over the next few days I'll also be covering a few other betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

As usual I've produced two form charts; the first based on the last six races and weighted in favour of recent results, and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver (Current Form):

Winning Driver	Profit*	Winning Bet
Sebastian Vettel	3.97	4
Lewis Hamilton	0.25	1
Nico Rosberg	-1.67	1
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.

Singapore Grand Prix: Tips Round-Up

"We want to fight for the championship but we have a 60 point deficit and we need to be very, very lucky." ...Fernando Alonso

With seven laps to go my post qualifying tips were looking at a clean sweep of seven out of seven successful winning bets.  However, late troubles in the race for Paul Di Resta and Mark Webber put paid to a perfect set of tips, but overall I was still fairly pleased with five out of seven winning tips.

On the championship front Sebastian Vettel is looking ever more dominant thanks to his fifth victory in seven races, and unless he suffers at least a couple of DNFs in the final 6 Grand Prix of 2013 then the championship battle is pretty much over.  The best price you can get now on Vettel to claim his fourth successive title is 1.01 from Ladbrokes and Bwin, and I think that says it all really.

Anyway, here's a round-up of how my tips got on...

Post Qualifying Tips:

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.75 (Paddy Power) - WIN 28 points
Fernando continues to be a strong podium bet, with his third successive second place finish.  His three latest podiums have been achieved from 9th, 5th and 7th on the grid, suggesting that after qualifying (when Alonso's podium odds generally drift out slightly) is the best time to back Alonso for a top three finish.

Total Classified Finishers:
10 points on Over 17.5 at 2.1 (William Hill) - WIN 18 points
This was a winning bet but also a missed opportunity as if I'd gone for 'Total Classified Finishers - Over 18.5' which was available from SkyBet, I could have increased my winning odds to 2.75.  For the record, that's now seven consecutive Grand Prix where SkyBet's 'Total Classified Finishers - Over/Under' market has produce a winning 'Over' result.

The Singapore Grand Prix: Post-Qualifying Tips

“It was a strange feeling when you see the others making their final attempt and there’s nothing you can do. " ...Sebastian Vettel

Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Singapore Grand Prix and now that we know the starting grid, it's time to make another set of predictions.

There weren't a lot of bets which stood out as instantly appealing, but I've picked out a few, so here are my post-qualifying predictions for the Singapore Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Fernando Alonso at 2.75 (Paddy Power)
Alonso has a decent record here, winning in 2008* and 2010 and finishing on the podium at all but one of the five previous Singapore Grand Prix.  He also came from 9th and 5th on the grid to finish 2nd at each of the previous two Grand Prix of 2013, so starting from 7th doesn't necessarily rule him out of another podium.  It's trickier to overtake at Singapore than at Spa and Monza obviously, but strategy can come into play, and the safety car has been deployed at least once at every Singapore Grand Prix, so pitstop timing could be key. 

* Admittedly thanks to a little help from 'Crashgate'.

The Singapore Grand Prix: Pre-Qualifying Tips

"You want to qualify as high up as possible and, of course, aim for the front row, but that will be tough." ...Lewis Hamilton

As I mentioned after Monza, some bookies now have Sebastian Vettel priced as low as 1.02 to take his fourth consecutive driver's championship, and judging by his dominant form in P2 it would be a brave man to bet against him.

The bookies have Lewis Hamilton priced as the driver with the biggest chance of denying Vettel pole position this weekend.  However, Lewis is predicting that even the front row will be tough, so it doesn't look good for Vettel's championship rivals.

Here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Singapore Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Double Points Finish:
10 points on Red Bull at 1.44 (Paddy Power)
From twelve Grand Prix in 2013, Red Bull have only failed to record a double points scoring finish on two occasions.

Qualifying Winning Margin:
10 points on Over 0.25 Seconds at 1.91 (SkyBet)
The average qualifying margin separating the front row of the grid at Singapore has been 0.367 seconds, and given that Red Bull and Sebastian Vettel in particular looked in ominous form in P2, we may be in for a similarly comfortable margin in Saturday's qualifying session.

Singapore Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

If you like to bet on formula 1 then it helps to be armed with the statistics, and so over the last few days I've analysed the form guide to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  The form guide charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the best bets in various betting categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, below...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

Most Profitable Bets:

Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (£3.61 profit rating)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (£2.50 profit rating)
Top Six Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£17.50 profit rating)
Top Ten Finish:  Nico Hulkenberg  (£3.00 profit rating)
Fastest Qualifier:  Lewis Hamilton  (£3.44 profit rating)
Winning Team:  Mercedes  (£2.83 profit rating)
Qualify On Front Row:  Mark Webber  (£2.50 profit rating)
Fastest Lap:  Mark Webber  (£5.83 profit rating)
Lap 1 Leader:  Sebastian Vettel (£3.30 profit rating)
First To Retire:  Paul di Resta  (£13.50 profit rating)
First Team To Retire:  Force India  (£13.33 profit rating)
Safety Car:  No  (£1.54 profit rating)
Lap 1 Retirements:  One  (£1.50 profit rating)
Winning Margin:  Under 6 Seconds  (£0.37 profit rating)

N.B. The profit rating is weighted in favour of recent races to reflect the fact that recent Grand Prix generally have more relevance to forthcoming results.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver/result at each of the previous six Grand Prix (based on the odds when the market first opened) and then applied the following multipliers; Canada 16.7%, Britain 33.3%, Germany 50%, Hungary 66.7%, Belgium 83.3% and Italy 100%.

The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Today I'm going to round-off my analysis of the formula 1 form guide by covering a selection of miscellaneous betting markets such as fastest lap, fastest qualifier, etc.

The following form guide charts charts are based on the last six races and as usual I've weighted things in favour of recent results by applying the following multipliers for each Grand Prix: Canada 16.7%, Britain 33.3%, Germany 50%, Hungary 66.7%, Belgium 83.3% and Italy 100%.

Fastest Lap:

First up, here's the form guide for the fastest lap:

Fastest Lap	Profit*	Winning Bet
Mark Webber	5.83	3
Lewis Hamilton	2.50	1
Fernando Alonso	1.50	1
Sebastian Vettel	-0.58	1
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

*  Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last few days I've analysed which drivers have been the best bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets.

Today I move onto the Top Ten Finish market and as usual I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent form and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

The recent form chart is as follows:

The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

So far in the run-up to Singapore, I've analysed the top formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver and Podum Finish betting markets and today I look at the Top Six betting market.

Once again I've compiled two form guide charts; the first weighted in favour of recent results and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart...

'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Six Finish (Current Form):

Top 6 Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Nico Hulkenberg	17.50	1
Jenson Button	1.17	2
Fernando Alonso	0.83	6
Mark Webber	0.65	5
Sebastian Vettel	0.25	5
Nico Rosberg	-0.02	4
Felipe Massa	-0.30	2
Lewis Hamilton	-0.32	5
Jean-Eric Vergne	-0.67	1
Romain Grosjean	-0.85	2
Kimi Raikkonen	-1.34	3
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Canada 16.7%, Britain 33.3%, Germany 50%, Hungary 66.7%, Belgium 83.3% and Italy 100%.

The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Yesterday I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver market and today it's the turn of the Podium Finish betting market.

Once again I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent Grand Prix and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Current Form):

Podium Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Romain Grosjean	2.50	1
Sebastian Vettel	1.01	5
Fernando Alonso	0.49	4
Mark Webber	0.21	2
Lewis Hamilton	-0.23	3

Kimi Raikkonen	-0.42	2
Nico Rosberg	-2.33	1

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Canada 16.7%, Britain 33.3%, Germany 50%, Hungary 66.7%, Belgium 83.3% and Italy 100%.

The Singapore Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

As usual I've analysed the recent results to produce the latest form guide charts showing the most profitable formula 1 bets, and also the safest bets, so far this season.

Below you can find the charts for the 'Winning Driver' betting market and over the next few days I'll also be covering a few other betting markets such as Podium Finish, Top Ten Finish, etc.

As usual I've produced two form charts; the first based on the last six races and weighted in favour of recent results, and the second based on the entire 2013 season.
Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Winning Driver (Current Form):

Winning Driver	Profit*	Winning Bet
Sebastian Vettel	3.61	4
Lewis Hamilton	1.50	1
Nico Rosberg	0.17	1
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Canada 16.7%, Britain 33.3%, Germany 50%, Hungary 66.7%, Belgium 83.3% and Italy 100%.

Italian Grand Prix: Round Up

"I had a big flat spot and I wasn't sure if the tyre would survive." ...Sebastian Vettel

I have to admit that although I have had my favourite drivers over the years, in general I'm a fan of exciting championship battles more than I'm a fan of any specific driver.  However, after Sebastian Vettel claimed his 6th victory of the season, the chances of a dramatic finish to the season are looking extremely slim.

There are still seven races to go, but Sebastian Vettel now has a 53 point lead over nearest rival Fernando Alonso, and the bookies have Vettel priced at between 1.02 to 1.04 to retain the formula 1 driver's championship.

Here's a quick round-up of how my Monza bets got on...

Post Qualifying Tips:

Shorter Priced Bets:

Double Points Finish:
20 points on Red Bull at 1.4 (Paddy Power) - WIN 28 points
Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel were both on the podium, ensuring Red Bull's 10th double points scoring finish of the season.

Top Six Finish:
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 1.7 (William Hill) - LOSS
Lewis had a slow puncture early in the race, as well as radio problems, and eventually came home in 9th position.

The Italian Grand Prix: Monza Post-Qualifying Tips

"They didn't put out the last radio message, when I said thank you to Felipe and thank you to the team." ...Fernando Alonso

Yesterday I made my pre-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix and now that the starting grid has been decided I'm going to follow things up with another set of predictions.

The latest weather forecast is predicting, "An increasing chance of heavy showers this weekend in Monza for the Formula 1 racing."  However, I got caught out at Spa by a forecast of showers which never came, so once again the wisest strategy is probably to wait until closer to the start of the Grand Prix before finalising your bets.

Anyway, here are my post-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Double Points Finish:
20 points on Red Bull at 1.4 (Paddy Power)
This is a fairly short priced bet to be tipping, but given that Red Bull have recorded a double points finish at nine out of eleven Grand Prix so far in 2013, the odds of 1.4 on offer from Paddy power just seem rather generous.

The Italian Grand Prix: Monza Pre-Qualifying Tips

"The car feels really good so his [Vettel's] car must feel incredible! " ...Lewis Hamilton

Last time out at Spa I correctly predicted Lewis Hamilton for pole position, but other than that my pre-qualifying tips had a disappointing weekend.  It may therefore be wiser to pay closer attention to the form guide when deciding on your formula 1 bets this weekend.

It's a crucial weekend for the championship, and the likes of Lewis, Fernando and Kimi really have to start beating Sebastion sooner rather than later if we're going to have a close championship battle, but so far this weekend Red Bull are looking very strong as usual.

It's worth mentioning that the weather forecast is predicting 'scattered thunderstorms over the weekend', so it may be wiser to wait until Sunday morning (when a more accurate idea of the possibility of a wet race should be available) before placing your formula 1 bets this weekend.

Anyway, here are my pre-qualifying tips for the Italian Grand Prix...

Shorter Priced Bets:

Podium Finish:
10 points on Lewis Hamilton at 2.0 (Boylesports)
Lewis has had a mixed weekend so far, with the fastest time in P1 and a less impressive P2, but he arrives at Monza on the back of two podium finishes and he won here last year.  Monza is generally also kinder to tyres than some tracks, which should suit Mercedes, so the odds of 2.0 offered by Boylesports for a Lewis Hamilton podium seem reasonable.

Italian Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

If you like to bet on formula 1 then it helps to be armed with the statistics, and so over the last few days I've analysed the form guide to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.  The form guide charts I've produced have been fairly detailed and show the profit/loss for every driver.

However, for the benefit of anyone who just wants a brief summary of the best bets in various betting categories, I've summarised the most profitable bets*, and also the safest bets, below...

* Based on the last six Grand Prix and weighted in favour of recent races.

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Today I'm going to round-off my analysis of the formula 1 form guide by covering a selection of miscellaneous betting markets such as fastest lap, fastest qualifier, etc.

The following form guide charts charts are based on the last six races and as usual I've weighted things in favour of recent results by applying the following multipliers for each Grand Prix: Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%, Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.

Fastest Lap:

First up, here's the form guide for the fastest lap:

Fastest Lap	Profit*	Winning Bet
Mark Webber	10.33	3
Fernando Alonso	3.17	1
Sebastian Vettel	0.67	2
Rest Of The Field	-3.50	0

*  Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 4 - Top Ten Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Over the last few days I've analysed which drivers have been the best bets of 2013 in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish and Top Six Finish betting markets.

Today I move onto the Top Ten Finish market and as usual I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent form and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

The recent form chart is as follows:

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

So far in the run-up to Monza, I've analysed the top formula 1 bets in the Winning Driver and Podum Finish betting markets and today I look at the Top Six betting market.

Once again I've compiled two form guide charts; the first weighted in favour of recent results and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart...

The Italian Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

Yesterday I analysed the most profitable formula 1 bets so far this season in the Winning Driver market and today I move onto the Podium Finish betting market.

Once again I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent Grand Prix and the second based on the entire 2013 season.

Here's the first form chart:

'Betting Profit' Chart For Podium Finish (Current Form):

Podium Finish	Profit*	Winning Bet
Romain Grosjean	4.50	1
Lewis Hamilton	0.80	3
Sebastian Vettel	0.78	5
Kimi Raikkonen	0.50	2
Fernando Alonso	-0.24	3

Nico Rosberg	-1.38	2
Mark Webber	-1.71	2

Rest Of The Field

-3.50

0

* Profit weighted in favour of recent races.  To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Monaco 16.7%, Canada 33.3%, Britain 50%, Germany 66.7%, Hungary 83.3% and Belgium 100%.